Marseille v Dijon

Quite a few stars are lining up nicely ahead of this match, and they give us a decent feeling that supporting Dijon is the right thing to do in this match.

Let's start off with the form. It's far from rosy for Dijon, who have one just once in thier last ten, but Marseille must surely have had their confidence knocked after four straight defeats as well. Yes, they came against PSG, Lazio (twice) and Montpellier, but a loss is a loss in the dressing room.

Moving onto "luck" - the expected goals and expected points tables all suggest that Marseille are marginally overperforming so far, while Dijon have probably deserved more than they have banked. Marseille might reasonably have expected to have banked 16 points at this stage. As it is, they have 19 on the board - largely down to having avoided draws for the most part.

Dijon by contrast are projected to have around 15-16 - but have actually only managed 11. Their numbers project them to have scored and conceded about 15 apiece, but have actually scored just 12 and conceded 21. Fine margins, but absolutely crucial in the table.

There is no way Marseille should be as short as 4/11 in this one, so we are going to oppose them by taking Dijon on the handicap. We win with a Dijon win or a draw.

2pts Dijon +1 to beat Marseille at 9/4 (Betfair)

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