Extremadura v Malaga

The bookmakers don't give the hosts much chance in this match, and it's easy to see why they might have taken that view. For a start off, Extremadura are 20th in the table, while Malaga are flying high in 3rd. But this betting game is all about finding value, and there are decent reason's to beleive the hosts could be competitive here, which we'll now attempt to persuade you of.

Let's start off with how they have performed at home this season. A 1-1-5 home record looks poor on the face if it, but first let's consider their opponents. In those seven matches they have played Deportivo (1st), Granada (4th), Albacete (5th), Cadiz (6th), Las Palmas (7th) and Osasuna (8th). A tough run in that division. They have also matched their rivals in almost every game, and just missed the rub of the green.

Over those matches they have produced 99 shots, with just 79 against. Notable missed opportunities came against Osasuna, losing the match but level on the shot count, losing to Albacete despite winning the shot count 11-10 and somehow losing to Las Palmas despite winning the shot count 21-12.

Malaga have not won in their last five away matches now, and there is every chance things could continue to be tough for them. Odds of 14/5 don't reflect their chances in this one in our view and they look worthy of a small bet.

1pt Extremadura to beat Malaga at 14/5

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