Brexit Update

We're well aware that things have been very quiet on the Brexit front for most people. Hunting out an update in the various newspapers has been nigh on impossible as almost zero column inches have been afforded to those interested to keep up with developments. So here we are, giving a quick update to what the markets are making of the latest UK/EU relationships and how likely each outcome is to come to fruition at time of writing.

So Mrs May has been to Brussels, and thrashed out a deal. The opposition to the deal have been lining up in their droves and some projections put her at missing her required target by over a hundred votes. If you believe the gulf is that wide and her task so enormous, the you can still get 1.18 that the deal fails to get through Parliament before the end of the year - its 6.4 to succeed.

If it fails, it's anyone's guess what might happen, but May is now just 1.6 to be out of No.10 before the country is out of the EU. Brexit happening first is a 2.62 shot.

That puts us on a bit of a clock if the March 29th deadline is to be hit, and the UK exiting is now a 1.92 shot to be out by the deadline and just 2.02 to still be in the zone as the deadline passes. That's on the wire then according to the markets.

So if we haven't left by then, what might happen? Well it wouldnt be popular with Leavers, but another referendum is into 2.42 to happen before the end of 2019, which is beginning to look more and more plausible.

If we are still in as the deadline passes, then it's hard to predict what will happen, and that's reflected in the markets. While its marginally odds-on we exit before April, it's 8.6 we leave in April/May/June and 7.0 we leave later in 2019.