World Champs - Day 1

The PDC looks to have sold out slightly with the new format of the World Championships this season. The replacement of eight prelimary matches for a place in the Last 64 with a full round of matches between 32 Pro Tour players and 32 International qualifiers unfortunately means that for many casual fans, the first week of the tournament will see them settle down to watch unfamilar names. Still, 15,000 extra bums of seats means the PDC more than cover the winner's cheque with the additional ticket sales and beer swillage.

The good news is that those who do their research will have some new opportunities from a betting perspective, so lets not bite the hand that's feeding us, and press straight on.

Jeffrey de Zwaan v Nitin Kumar

This is a massive mis-match. The up and coming de Zwaan is destined to make a really top player, while Kumar must count himself very lucky to test himself on this stage. His performances on the Asian Tour give no suggestions he can mix it here - he is a good three darts per leg worse than the average player in the competition, and a full 10 points worse on the average.

With that in mind, this should be a short match, and something shorter than 12-13 darts looks highly likely in my eyes. This gives us an angle to attack - and the even money on de Zwaan getting under 3.5 180s looks value in what could be a short match. At around 0.25 180s per leg, we might expect the Dutchman to expect on average around three, which means less than four should be a good bit odds on (perhaps around 4/6 or 8/11).

He's also checked out over 34% of his legs this season on D20, so Coral's 5/2 about the match being won on D20 looks fair value as well.

2pts de Zwaan to hit Under 3.5 180s at Evens

1pt Match Winning Double D20 at 5/2

Dekker v Ashton

It's great to see the Ladies welcomed into the event this year, but I fear it could be a short stay for Lisa Ashton, who just doesn't have the scoring power to see off Jan Dekker.

Dekker has won 28% of his legs with throw in 15 darts or fewer - Ashton is a far worse 8%, and that means she's unlikely to have the power scoring to make much of a dent against the throw at all.

It all points to a one-sided match, and the 5/2 with SportingBet on the 3-0 correct score looks too good to turn down. That's a big bet in my eyes.

The most interesting stat I've seen this week is that Dekker has checked out 44% of his winning legs this season on D16. Thats an absolutely remarkable strike rate, and makes the 10/3 with Ladbrokes on the match ending on D16 pretty tasty.

4pts Dekker to win 3-0 at 5/2

1pt Match Winning Double to be D16 at 10/3 (Ladbrokes)

#Darts