World Champs-Day 6 Afternoon (Tue)

We kick off with Bob Thornton against Daniel Larsson and it's a classic case of a match being priced up on reputation rather than recent form.

Thornton is just 2/5 to win this one, which is crazy short for a man who has won under 15% of his legs with the throw in less than 15 darts, and whose average winning leg length this season is close to 17. After being an almost every present in the PDC Top 20, Thornton has surely started his decline now, and we're backing Larsson to take advantage.

It's not easy to make a solid case for Larsson with such limited experience on the main stage, but his core numbers are not far off Thornton's this season, so it's all about the price in this one. He's winning 19% of throwing legs in 15 darts, and average winning leg length is 16.81 darts. This could genuinely go either way so back the Swede at 11/5.

We've had some success backing the outsiders in the 180's match bets, and we'll chance a minimal bet on a repeat in this one - Larsson isn't a great 180 chucker, but Thornton's numbers are dropping, and he's down to 0.23 per leg this season.

2pts Larsson to beat Thornton at 11/5 (General)

1pt Larsson most 180s at 4/1 (General)

Ricky Evans should have enough for Rowby-John Rodriguez, but again it could be the 180s provide the best angle of attack. Ricky Evans averages around 0.22 per leg typically, with Rodriguez slightly higher at 0.25.

It's possible that Evans will handle the occassion better, but not enough that he's odds-on in the most 180s market. That''s opened up some value, and we'll chuck a dart at the 11/5 dangled by Sporting Bet.

1pt Rodriquez more 180s at 11/5 (SportingBet)

Yet another match where the bookies look to have ignored the stats available, in their pricing up of Krzystop Ratajski against Serio Asada.

The Pole is no big scorer - he hits just 0.11 180s per leg on the tour which means he's unlikely to score a hatful in what could be a short match. Asada isn't a great deal more prolific, but his 0.14 per leg makes him favourite in this market in our view. The 12/5 with SportingBet is definitely too big on him getting the most maximums.

With neither man hitting many, we're likely to see about one per four legs of arrows. Ratajski is a 1/4 shot, which means we have a great chance of this match going just three sets, and we'll try backing Under 4.5 180s at 4/5 with Ladbrokes for some great value.

1pt Asada Most 180s at 12/5 (Sporting Bet)

4pts Under 4.5 180s at 4/5 (Ladbrokes)

#Darts