World Darts - Day 12 - Evening

Tony Alcinas v Benito van de Pas

This won't be the best clash on Thursday, and I tend to think Tony Alcinas may be a smidge of value at 8/13 to beat van de Pas, but probably not enough to start chucking up tips left right and centre.

Van de Pas is well beatable though. He hasnt been past the last 32 of any event since May, and 70% of his last 30 matches have seen him average under 89.5 - thats the line William Hill ask him to cover in this one. Alcinas is unlikely to dominate so effectively as to increase that average, so we reckon he's worth backing to go under that average.

There doesn't seem to be a lot of value in the 180s markets, with Alcinas expected to outscore his oppoonent roughly 2 maximums for every one van de Pas hits.

1.2pts van de Pas to average under 89.5 at 5/6

Gary Anderson v Chris Dobey

It's hard not to love Chris Dobey, such has been his manner throughout the World Championships so far. I fear this could and will be the end of the road for him, but he'll walk away head held high.

The pair should exchange 180s for fun - Dobey has hit 15 in his first three matches over 47 legs (0.32 per leg) and Anderson has managed 15 in 50 (0.3 per leg). That puts Anderson slightly below our long term projections of his strike rate per leg, and Dobey a good deal ahead. A regression to the mean (we'd expect nearer 0.22-0.23 per leg) and Anderson looks value at 4/5 to hit the first maximum of the match.

1pt Anderson to hit the first 180 of the match at 4/5

MvG v Adrian Lewis

This is probably the most keenly anticipated fixture of the tournament so far, and I'd enjoy nothing more than seeing MvG absolutely destroy Adrian Lewis.

Talk of an Adrian Lewis revival feel premature to me - MvG has won the last seven meetings between the pair, winning 47 legs to 20 as an aggregate score.

For a bet, MvG has averaged over 100.5 in 31 of his last 44 matches, which suggests Hill line of 100.5 should have "Over" as a strong favourite. They make it a 5/6 poke, which looks great value in my eyes. Even if Lewis turns up, it's going to hard to see MvG not topping it such is his consistency.

MvG should hit around 60% of the 180s in this match, and I'd have him around 8/11 to hit the first of the match as a result. He's as long as 10/11 for the first of the match, which represents a little value.

5pts MvG to average over 100.5 at 5/6 (Will Hill)

1.1pt MvG to hit the 1st 180 at 10/11 (Sky)

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