World Darts - Day 13-Fri Eve

If you're down at the Ally Pally tonight, an especially warm welcome. I hope you've dressed up properly. You've got a cracker on tonight with Michael Smith, Dave Chisnall and Rob Cross all on stage, so buckle in.

Ryan Searle v Michael Smith

It's 10th v 49th on the PDC Order of Merit, but Searle will take a big jump up the rankings following this tournament regardless now and I think the bookies are probably under-rating his chances against Smith in this one.

He might look like an extra from Shameless, but if you met Searle in The Jockey he would surely be the best player in there. He beat Stephen Burton 3-0, Mensur Suljovic 3-1 and Willie O'Connor 4-1, so is in fine form, and although his averages have been moderate (87.82, 90.66 and 89.40) he can certainly give Michael Smith a run for his money.

Smith should win of course, but as short as 1/7 in places is surely too much respect for a player who has been known to wobble on occasions. He's 5.7 on Betfair, and 9/2 in places to win, and I think that's worth a tickle. You can also back him on the handicap getting a 2.5 sets head start. That means he wins with anything better than a 4-0 or 4-1 defeat to Smith. I'm very happy with those odds.

In terms of his usual ability, over his last 50 matches he has averaged over 88.5 in 28 matches (56%) but that rises to 70% when looking only at matches against top 10 players, and William Hills average line of 88.5 looks generous in this one.

Finally, we have two "tops" merchants here. Both love Double 20, and I'd give around a 38% chance of the match being won on the top lipstick tonight. I wouldn't put anyone off backing the match winning double to be D20 (2/1 with BetFred) or the 8/1 on both 1st and last legs being won on D20 (Smart Boost with Coral). Instead though, we'll stick with the match winning double being D20 or D10 which is evens with Betfred and is probably slightly better value.

0.5pts Searle to beat Smith at 9/2 (General)

1.5pts Searle +2.5 Sets at Evens (General)

2pts Searle to average over 89.5 at 5/6 (Hills)

2pts Match Winning Double to be D20 or D10 (Betfred)

Jamie Lewis v Dave Chisnall

At his best, Jamie Lewis can be a fine chucker. He proved that last year and seems to save his best darts for the World Champs - reaching the semim-finals here last year. I can only put it down to small sample varience however, as his performances both last year and this have come after very mediocre seasons for the Welshman and on the balance of longer samples, I simply have to favour Chisnall.

Even with last seasons earnings in the Worlds, Lewis is still only 26th on the Order of Merit, while Chisnall is 12th. Lewis hasn't collected more than £2,500 from any ranked major since, and has come away from plenty of PDPA events without a penny. In the same time-frame Chizzy has reached the quarter-finals of the World Grand Prix, the German Darts Championships, World Matchplay and European Grand Prix, as well as a host of PDPA events.

He's my cert of the night in this one and I cannot see past him winning, and winning with ease.

3pts Dave Chisnall to beat Jamie Lewis at 8/15 (General)

2pts Dave Chisnall -1.5 sets at Evens (Ladbrokes / Betway)

Rob Cross v Luke Humphries

Luke Humphries has been a breathe of fresh air to the tournament and a delight to watch. He's unlikely to have enough to continue that journey, but never say never of course.

This match could be all about the 180s and the Cross Averages from a punting perspective.

Starting with the 180s - Cross averages around 0.30 180s per leg typically. We haven't adjusted for the World Grand Prix on that stat (double in double out) but it will be close enough for this purpose. Humphries is typically close to 0.20 per leg, but his form over the past fortnight might perhaps have influenced the bookies too much.

You can get 11/13 (0.84) with Marathon on Cross hitting the most 180s or 4/5 with plenty of more conventional and popular firms, and that's big enough to warrant a dabble in our eyes. Assuming around 22 legs, that gives us expectancies of around 6.6 for Cross and 44 for Humphries. Cross should be nearer the 8/15 mark in my view.

On the averages, Cross has averaged 95.7 over his last 50 ranking matches, and gone "under" the William Hill line of 98.5 in 38 of those (76%). If you remove matches against the Top 10 from that you end up with him "Under" in 32/44 or 73%.

1pt Cross to hit most 180s at 4/5 (General)

2pts Cross to average Under 98.5 (William Hill)

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