MvG v Smith - Stats Picks

Delving deeper into the match, we'll start on the check-outs, where SpreadEx are perhaps a little high with their line of Under/Over 154.5 being the top check out of the match.

849 winning legs from Michael van Gerwen saw him check out over 154 in just 18 of them (2.1%), while Smith was just 6 out of 435 (1.4%). There will be plenty of opportunities, but other firms pitch their U/O lines at 148.5 or 150.5 and that significantly moves the rates.

William Hill offer a special on Michael Smith hitting the most 180s and having an average over 100.5 at 13/2 and that looks massive to me. He's favourite in the 180s market - trading at no longer than 4/5 (1.8), which suggests they make him around a 3/1 shot to average over 100.5, which he most certainly is not. Personally I struggle to make this longer than around 3/1, so 13/2 is a strong bet.

Moving on, Betway offer a special on Michael van Gerwen averaging over 101 at 8/15. That's way too low. He has beaten that average in 11 of his last 12 matches and 30 out of 34 matches. Basically he is a machine.

Finally, Betfred are offering specials on the first leg scores, and we fancy both to hit big scores. MvG is on offer at 6/4 to hit over 100 with his first three darts, and Smith is 7/4 in the same market.

In his opening five matches, Smith has hit a 140 and a 134 with his first 3 darts, while MvG has managed a 140, 180 and a 140. Longer term, Smith manages over 100 in 45% of his first legs (implied 5/4 shot) and MvG in 52% of legs (implied 10/11 chance). Note that this bet doesnt win with EXACTLY 100.

1.1pt Highest CO Under 154.5 at 10/11 (Spreadex)

4pts Smith to hit most 180s and Average 100.5 at 13/2 (WillHill)

3pts MvG to average over 101 at 8/15 (Betway)

2pts MvG to hit OVER 100 with 1st 3 darts (Betfred)

2pts Smith to hit OVER 100 with 1st 3 darts (Betfred)

#Darts