BDO - Day 5 - Wednesday Evening

Mark McGeeney v Conan Whitehead doesn't excite me hugely from a betting perspective - McGeeney is the clear better player, and 1st to four sets does begin to make upsets harder for the underdog.

That said, I'm not sure he should be as short as 1/3 in this - he's marginally better on all the metrics I look at, but Whitehead is definitely capable. For a minimal bet, I'd be happy taking 13/5 on Whitehead for a little interest here.

0.5pts Whitehead to beat McGeeney at 13/5

Next on is Jim Williams v Dean Reynolds, and Williams is the far superior player here.

He'll expect to finish inside 18 darts in something like 85% of legs, compared to nearer 71% for Reynolds. Flip that on his head, and consider that he will FAIL to finish inside 18 darts in 15% of legs compared to 29% for Reynolds and you see why breaks become all the more common in one direction.

I'd expect to see close to a 10 pt difference in their three dart averages, so while Williams is 2/5 to win the match, the 8/11 on him winning with a -1.5 set handicap means we pick up with a 4-0, 4-1 or 4-2. Feels fair enough that to me.

2.2pts Williams -1.5 sets to beat Reynolds at 8/11 (Bet365)

In the final match of the day, Scott Waites isn't short enough at a general 4/6 to beat Richard Veenstra. Veenstra beat Waites 4-1 in the British Open but over the course of the season Waites has produced better numbers in general and should be a decent favourite in this one.

He's finished 89% of legs inside 18 darts this season which is great when compared to the field and we should see a high quality match here - one of the best of the tournament so far I suggest.

1pt Waites to beat Veenstra at 4/6 (General)

#Darts