BDO - Day 6 - Thursday Evening

David Cameron v Kyle McKinstry kicks us off, and I strongly fancy the favourite here. 

McKinstry is a considerably better player in our data, and over a first to four format that should be enough to separate them. He is far more likely to click into gear and card 12-15 dart lets (around 9% more likely) which is a significant advantage when it comes to deciding matches at this level.

He'll outscore his opponent easily, and just needs to take his doubles when they come along, which they will. He'll certainly find the maximums more frequently, but at 1/3 that outcome is short enough. 

3pts KcKinstry to beat Cameron at 8/15 (General)

We'll resist a bet in the Glen Durrant v Scott Baker market. It was tempting to take Durrant on the handicap, but the price has shortened and instead it's probably just a match to enjoy. Our data makes Baker a decent bet on the 180s, but Durrant was in top form in the opening round - hitting 7 in just 12 legs. 

In the Ladies match, we like Lorraine Winstanley to beat Trina Gulliver at a shade of odds-on. 

Winstanley won both the Czech and Northern Ireland Opens in warm up for coming here, beating Anastasia Dobromyslova and Lisa Ashton in those two finals. Her underlying data this season is well superior to Trina Gulliver's and whilst she has lost to Trina in their last two meetings,both have been close and she has a long-term winning record against her rival. 

2.2pts Lorraine Winstanley to beat Trina Gulliver at 8/11 (General)

#Darts