BDO - Day 7 - Mens

Conan Whitehead v Scott Waites

Waites should have this one, but the odds are probably just about right. Perhaps there is some juice at 4/7, but both are capable on their day so we'll avoid a bet for the same of it in the match markets.

Long-term trends don't show very much in it as far as 180s go, but Waites has been on fire around the maximum bed this week - 13 in just 37 legs at a rate of 0.35. That is as prolific as any of the biggest bed fillers on the PDC. Whitehead hs hit just seven in 42 legs in this years event. It's a surprise to see 6/5 available on Waites hitting the most 180s in this, and that looks a bet.

It's over first to five sets this one, but with neither player hitting big COs yet this year, we're happy to back some unders. Waites has put in a 101 and a 160 in his 37 legs, and Whitehead has managed just three 100+ finishes and nothing larger than 120. SportingBet offer 11/13 on the highest checkout being under 140.5 and that looks a gift.

1pt Waites Most 180s at 6/5 (General)

2pts Highest CO Under 140.5 at 11/13 (SportingBet)

Michael Unterbuchner v Willem Mandigers

There isn't a lot between these two in our eyes, and while the general consensus is that Unterbuchner is the man to beat here, I wouldn't rule out an upset in this one at all though, and at 8/5 it looks worth taking a chance on Mandigers who has been excellent so far this tournament and who holds a 3-1 head to head recor over the German.

This match could well go the distance, so I'm going to put my bet on the underdog here.

1pt Mandigers to beat Unterbuchner at 8/5 (General)

Scott Mitchell v Jim Williams

Another really tight call here. Mitchell would have been my pick a week or so ago, but Williams is having a hell of a tournament and should feel excited about going off to the PDC Q-School in the form he currently holds. I can't split the pair any better than the bookies can in this one as a result.

Williams has been firing in the maximums this week (9 in 43 legs) while Mitchell hasn't (just 3 in 51 legs). That's seen Williams installed as a heavy favourite in the Most 180s market, so I'm planning to swim against the tide and back Mitchell in this one at 3/1. Long term they both hit somewhere close to 0.2 per leg, so I'm putting this big difference down to small sample varience deceiving us of the true reality.

We'll also chance a small bet on Mitchell hitting the highest CO of the match. He is typically a better finisher - finishing around 11% of his legs with 100+ finishes to just 7.6% for Williams. At 11/10 to hit the biggest in this match, I'm a small player.

1pt Mitchell Most 180s at 3/1 (General)

1pt Mitchell Highest CO at 11/10 with Betfair/PP

#Darts