Waites v Unterbuchner

This will be a popular semi-final with fans with Waites really back on his game, and German Unterbuchner bidding to improve on his semi-final of last year on his debut here.

Waites has been the better player throughout the tournament so far though in every way, and I'm backing him to continue that performance and reach the final for our 22/1 outright shot to at least bank some e/w payout. Let's not forget we also backed him at 14/5 to win his quarter, so that's some more money in the bank.

So far this tournament Waites has won 41 of his 68 legs - a 60.3% win rate. Unterbuchner has taken down 45 from 78 at a lower 57.7% win rate. How those legs have been won is pretty crucial in our view of the match though. Waites has won 9.7% of his legs inside four visits, 49% inside five visits and 88% inside six visits. None have taken longer than 20 darts. For Unterbuchner, he has won just 2.2% of legs within 12 daets, 47% inside five visits and 84% inside six visits. When they do slip up, Unterbuchner has also missed the seventh visit clear up in 4 out of 78 legs. All the way down, he's the man who is more likely to slip up, and over such a long format, I'm with Waites here at 5/6.

In the 180s, Waites is averaging 0.31 per leg this tournament, with Unterbucher notching 0.167 per leg. Waites would usually be closer to 0.22 per leg, and Unterbuchner 0.15. We're inputting into our model around 0.26 for Waites and 0.165 for Unterbuchner for this match, which suggests Waites should be around 1/3 to hit most. Not different enough to warrant a bet at 4/9 in our view.

BetFred ask Waites to go U/O 8.5 180s and the 10/11 on him going over that line represents value in our view.

3.3pts Waites to beat Unterbuchner at 10/11 (Boyles)

1.1pts Waites to hit over 8.5 180s at 10/11 (Betfred)

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