Aussie Open - Day 6 - Ladies

Madison Keys v Elise Mertens

Keys won the only previous meeting between the pair back at Flushing Meadows in 2017 - she was a 2/7 shot that day and won 6-3 7-6. She's nearer to even money than that price this time around and that looks great value.

Looking at thier records against players ranked 10-50, and Keys has a one-year 7-5 winning record (9-10 for Mertens). The all important combined service pts/receiving pts% show Mertens on 98.2% and Keys on a decent 105.4%

Keys has come here fresh without warm-up this year, and that might be sensible ploy now she has cruised through the opening two matches - being Aiva 6-2 6-2 and Potapova 6-3 6-4. It could be a defining factor in this match. We're with the American here.

2.2pts Keys to beat Mertens at 8/11 (General)

Naomi Osaka v Su-Wei Hsieh

When Osaka wins, shes tends to do with ease. She's won 48 matches since the start of 2018 - 42 of those over two sets! The improving Japanese player showed her quality last season by winning the US Open and reaching the final of the Tokyo Open and semi-finals of the China Open. She resumed service with a semi-final in Brisbane last week, and she then won in the first round against Magdo Linette facing just a single break point in the match, before dominating Tamara Zidansek.

This should be an opportunity to dominate a lady 11 years her senior and surely on the way down now. Su-Wei Hsieh is 33 now, and she was only 6-5 against players ranked 10-50 on hard cours last season, winning a combined 102.2% of pts. Osaka by contrast achieved a 19-6 winning record anda 108.2% combined serve/receive rate.

Several firms make this a 4/5 shot to be decide 2-0 in favour of Osaka, and I'm a backer at that price. Over the past two seasons, when going off shorter than 1.4, shes won 2-0 in 13 of her 15 hard court matches.

2pts Osaka to beat Hsieh 2-0 at 4/5 (General)

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