Aussie Open - Day 9 - Ladies

Kvitova v Barty

A tough match to call here. All the 2018 data points to a great chance for Ashleigh Barty, but their head to head see Kvitova leading 3-0, and its hard to ignore how well Kvitova has played this week – dominating each of her four match so far.

Barty has been excellent also of course – coming through with no fuss against three mediocre challenges before dispatching Sharapova in a much closer match.

I’m going to trust the longer term data in this one, and put up Barty as a small bet now she’s hit 7/5 with a market drift. It could be closer than many are giving this credit for, so for a minimal bet we’ll look to improve what has so far been a poor tournament for us.

1pt Barty to beat Kvitova at 7/5 (General)

Pavlyuchenkova v Collins

This is definitely another tough one to call – 2018 form would make Pavlyuchenkova a bet here, but there is no denying that Collins has made everyone take note this week. She was probably hugely lucky to navigate the first round against Julia Goerges, but has grown into the tournament since then, and he win over Angelique Kerber was utterly dominant – despite going off as a 5/1 shot! The same was true against Caroline Garcia, and she was a 13/8 shot in that one as well.

Pavlyuchenkova hasn’t done enough this week to suggest she should be a certainty, and I suspect the market move on Collins has now got the prices somewhere near right in this one. I’m excited to see what more Collins has to offer and suspect she will become a household name over the coming years, but it's no bet in this one.

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