Aussie Open - Day 9 - Mens

Roberto Bautista-Agut v Stefanos Tsitsipas

Both men could be forgiven for feeling tired coming into this one - not least the Spaniard who was taken the distance by Marin Cilic, and also endured lengthy five setters against John Millman and Andy Murray - all on top of a run to the final in Qatar a fortnight before.

Tsitsipas is the name many people are beginning to get excited about, and he's up to 15 in the world now. He was also involved in a four-set match against Federer - a match that saw a total of 51 games played, as well as against Nikoloz Basilashvili, Viktor Troicki and Matteo Berrettini. In fact, hes played 174 games already in this years Open compared to 184 for Bautista-Agut, so both have had a tough time.

Looking at the 2018 numbers, while Tsitsipas will likely hold the edge on serve, his return games isn't quite there yet and it could hold him back taking the next step for a while at least. Bautista Agut will be a good few ticks better on his return game and that could be the deciding factor in this match. He's seen support in the market, but the even money available will William Hill looks too big.

I don't usually get involved in heavy odds-on, but the 2/5 with Marathon about Tsitsipas serving the first ace looks long enough for a dabble here. Against Top 100 players last season, the Greek player served around 0.55 aces per game, compared to just 0.24 for the Spaniard. Against them, Tsitsipas concedes just 0.45 per game, while Bautista is less efficient - giving up 0.79 per game.

1pt Bautista Agut to beat Tsitsipas at evens (Hills)

2.5pts Tsitsipas 1st Ace at 2/5 (Marathon Bet)

Frances Tiafoe v Rafael Nadal

It's a similar bet in Tiafoe v Nadal, where the Spaniard should have far too much for the American. There is a gulf in class between the pair, but when it comes to firing down Aces Tiafoe should be a solid favourite.

On hard courts in 2018, Tiafoe achieved a 9.6% ace % - achieved at a rate of 0.61 per service game. Comapred to Nadal's 3.51% and 0.22 per service game, thats a massive difference. Of course, Nadal is the better returner, but he only found his against rate of 0.62 per receiving game marginally better than Tiafoe's 0.68.

For first Ace here, I'd be around 1/2 Tiafoe, so Marathon's 4/5 is a gift.

5pts Tiafoe to serve the first Ace of the match (4/5 with Marathon Bet)

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