Aussie Open - Mens Quick Pick

We've got a pick afterall in the Mens, as Stefanos Tsitsipas tackles Rafael Nadal - one of the best returners in the game.

It's hard to argue with the short prices about Nadal, but given the shocks we've see this week in Melbourne you'd be brave to put it up.

Instead let's head to Marathon bet, where their Aces markets ask whether the Greek player will serve more or less than 17.5 Aces in the match. Let's think about that for a moment. The match is in for around 35 games, of which Tsitsipas will serve half of them. So they are projecting him to power down about one ace per serve match on average.

That would put him in the same sort of category as Milos Raonic on serve, which he is certainly some way short of at the moment. He put down 22 against Bautista Agut (in 45 games), 20 against Federer in 51 games, 18 against Basilashvili in 41 games, 14 against Troicki in 37 games and 15 against Berrettini in 45 games. Overall thats 89 in 219 games - or 0.41 per game (0.82 per service game).

This is definitely an unders play with Marathon, with Nadal no longer than evens to finish the job inside three sets.

3.3pts Under 17.5 Tsitsipas Aces at 10/11

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