Premier League Darts - Week 5

Michael Smith v Rob Cross

A repeat of their meeting at the UK Open comes around quickly and the bookies favour Rob Cross – it’s more than understandable when you note that their head-to-head over the years has Cross leading 10-3 now – with nearly all those meetings in the past two seasons. On raw ability I have virtually nothing between the players, and certainly not enough to pay too much attention to the head-to-head and wade in at 7/5 on Cross.

This could go either way and it’s one to enjoy for the spectacle. Their 180's metrics are similar per leg played (Smith marginally better) while they have polar check out routes – with Smith preferring 20s `and Cross favouring the D16 route. Overall very hard to identify a bet is the upshot.

Verdict = No Bet

Daryl Gurney v James Wade

The pair have shared their eight previous meetings 4-4, with Gurney holding the edge 3-2 over the past two seasons. That’s perhaps unsurprising as there has been very little between the players on the leg length stats and we could see another close match in this one.

Premier League Darts can certainly see close matches, and I couldn’t put anyone off backing the 10/3 on the 6-6 draw in this one. It’s hardly a rare score over this format and these are about as closely matched as they come.

James Wade was always known as a 180 merchant back in the day, but his numbers over the past season or so have relaxed considerably there and he’s now an underdog for the most maximums against most opponents. Gurney hits around 0.28 per leg – well about average, and the 10/11 on him out-maxing Wade looks generous enough for a dabble.

2.2pts Gurney Most 180s at 10/11 (Ladbrokes / Corals)

1pt Match to end in a draw at 10/3 (General)

Mensur Suljovic v Gerwyn Price

Make no mistake, Gerwyn Price is playing very well at the moment. I tend to use between one and two full seasons' worth of data when comparing the top players but there is an argument to say that a sample range as broad as that could still under-egg the improvement in Price given how quickly he has come from being a non-darts player to being a genuine top-8 performer.

In this one I’m making Suljovic most 180s a very small bet at 2/1 – he hits 0.25 per leg compared to Price’s 0.23, and while the Welshman may very well be performing above that level, there is enough juice in the price to allow for a little variance either way

0.5pts Suljovic Most 180s at 2/1 (Betfair, Bet Victor)

Raymond van Barneveld v Peter Wright

Definitely not a match which excites me from a betting perspective as I don’t really trust either player to turn up on a particularly consistent basis. There is one bet I like however, which is Peter Wright to score over 100 with his first three darts of the match – offered with Bet Fred at 7/4.

A large data set makes that 6/4 by my calculations, so whilst it may not make you rich, it’s undoubtedly a sliver of value which is worth backing.

1pt Peter Wright Over 100 1st Three Darts at 7/4 (Betfred)

Michael van Gerwen v John Henderson

John Henderson is almost certainly the weakest of the “contenders” who came in to replace Gary Anderson and there shouldn’t be too much to concern van Gerwen. The short format is always unpredictable, but it’s a fair bet that MVG will break Henderson with reasonable ease. The makes correct score betting a little harder than usual, and there isn’t a great deal to be made on the Match Result either.

Opening the match could be interesting, with MVG 6/4 to score over 100 with his first visit, and Henderson available at 3/1 in the same market. Both look value based on our database, with MVG more like a 6/5 chance and Henderson closer to 2/1.

Henderson isn’t the best player for this type of elite field, but he can certainly stays steady around the treble 20 bed and he’s hits a not-too-shabby 0.29 180s per Leg. MvG by comparison is 0.33. It seems ludicrous therefore that MvG is so short in the market, especially when the match could be as short as 8 or 9 legs. 10/3 looks value for Henderson to hit the most here.

1pt Henderson Most 180s at 10/3 (Betfair)

1pt Henderson Over 100 1st Three Darts at 3/1 (BetFed)

1pt MvG Over 100 1st Three Darts at 6/4 (BetFred)

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