Scottish Round Up

Scotland has been pretty kind to us lately, so it’s top of the list for getting covered this weekend.

Ross County v Morton

Pace setters Ross County host Morton, and the hosts should make light work of their visitors. Ross have won nine of their 12 home matches this campaign, conceding just seven times - an impressive achievement in a league which tends to produce plenty of goals.

Most recently, Ross County have won six and drawn two in an unbeaten eight match sequence, including a win at Motherwell and a 3-2 win over Ayr.

Morton are stuck in mid-table, winning just once in the same eight-match period. Goals wise, it’s worth noting they have failed to score more than once since the turn of the year - a run stretching back nine matches. Compare that with Ross and you see a team who have scored 2+ in every game since mid-January (8 matches) and have 2+ in 10/13.

At 8/15 the bookies are trying to hide, but I think there remains enough value in the 10/11 available on the -1 Asian Handicap with Bet Victor. That sees you getting your stake back if Ross win by the odd goal and turning a full stakes profit if they win by 2+.

2.2pts Ross to beat Morton on the (-1) Asian Handicap at 10/11 (Bet Victor)

Alloa v Dunfermline

The title dream may be dead for Dunfermline, but they remain a much stronger outfit than Alloa and are worth supporting at 4/5.

Dunfermline have won four on the spin, including away at Ayr, and look too strong in this one after keeping clean sheets in each of those matches.

Ayr by contrast have lost five of their last six, a run which has seen them play bottom-three sides Partick, Falkirk and Queen of the South. They last won the shot-count in a match in mid November (when facing Morton).

2pts Dunfermline to beat Alloa at 4/5 (General)

Montrose v Dumbarton

Fifth placed Montrose take on seventh placed Dumbarton and it’s the away side we fancy here, who look a stronger side despite the league positions.

They haven’t pulled the division apart but last week’s 2-0 win over top-side Arbroath was certainly an excellent result - stretching their unbeaten run to six games. They won the shot count 14-7 in that match, and 8-2 in terms of efforts on target, so it was well deserved. They’ve now won the shot count in seven of their last ten outings.

Montrose have lost five from eight now and shouldn’t be the toughest nut Dumbarton have faced. With away form strong in Scottish League One generally, there is no reason to be put off Dumbarton and the 11/8 is big enough in this one.

2pts Dumbarton to beat Montrose at 11/8 (BetVictor)

Brechin v Forfar

Finally, Forfar have now won13 of their last 21 games, but remain 14 points off Arbroath. It’s probably too little too late, but it’s noteworthy form for a side tackling opponents who are second bottom of the table.

Brechin have improved over the past few weeks, gaining three wins and two draws from seven, but they lost seven in row before that and I’m not convinced they have enough in the locker for this one.

They were marginally out-shot at home to East Fife last week, and comprehensively out-played in their 1-1 draw at Stenhousmuir prior to that. In fact, it’s now 13 matches since they have recorded more shots than their opponents, so you have to feel that luck has favoured them more than they might have expected lately.

3pts Forfar to beat Brechin at 6/5 (Bet365)

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