League One Best Bets

Barnsley and Sunderland face off at Oakwell in an absolutely enormous match in League One. With just two automatic promotion spots, and ten games left of the season, Barnsley could strike an almost fatal blow into Sunderland’s automatic promotion hopes with a win here – they would move seven points clear.

Looking at results alone paints a pretty level picture of these two – Sunderland are 6-6-0 over their last 12, and have not lost since before Christmas. Draws have hurt them though – with eight of their last 17 ending all square. Barnsley have lost just once since Christmas, but have been winning more reliably – they are 8-3-1 over their last 12.

Shot data is more interesting though – over their last 10 matches Barnsley have achieved 169-73 for shots and 65-27 for on-target efforts. Sunderland by comparison are 121-107 and 45-42 – far less compelling. The shot numbers have shown that all season, so have to be treated with a little caution – Sunderland style has relied on carving out hight quality chances and taking them when they come, but nevertheless, you cannot disregard the Tykes dominance either. Over the course of the season Barnsley have record 541-272 shot data, and 198-99 for on target efforts. Sunderland have been 381-392 and 148-147. Hardly the stuff typically associated with title challengers.

We’re backing Barnsley to win this one at even money.

2pts Barnsley to beat Sunderland at evens (General)

Plymouth have revived their season since the turn of the year, collecting 21 points from their 13 matches – that’s the form of play-off contenders, and it’s a surprise to see them as long as 8/5 to make home advantage count against Shrewsbury.

They will have Lloyd Jones and Antoni Sarcevic back in the squad after the pair missed out against Luton, and it’s worth noting just how much Shrewsbury have struggled on the road – winning just two of their last 22 away league matches (9 draws and 11 defeats)

The visitors have been a mixed bag recently, taking wins over Peterborough and Doncaster, but losing to Rochdale and Bradford. It’s hard to know exactly what to expect in this one, but their away form is enough to persuade me that the 8/5 on Plymouth is value.

1pt Plymouth to beat Shrewsbury at 8/5 (Bet365)

Scunthorpe could yet see their season go north or south – they are just two points above the drop zone, but have more than enough ability to end up in the top half – Wycombe are three points ahead in 12th. They have hit a sticky patch of late – failing to beat Gillingham, Oxford, Bristol Rovers or Doncaster, but prior to that they won six from eight and are better than their position suggests.

Southend have held loftier positions throughout the season, but they are now a single point ahead of Scunthorpe, and have failed to win in eight matches. Their expected goals look worryingly poor at the moment and it wouldn’t take a huge leap of the imagination to see Chris Powell’s side dragged into the relegation mire now such is their form.

1pt Scunthorpe to beat Southend at 29/20 (Bet365)

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