Arkle Novice Chase - 2:10

Arguably the most open race of the whole festival, it's going to take a shrewd cookie to unravel this one.

Hardline has obvious claims – the softening ground should suit, as should the trip which looks more convenient that the last run out for this Gordon Elliott runner. Previous strong form over fences is another bonus.

Another option is Glen Forsa, but at 9/2 looks short enough on the morning prices. He's already won three times this season, but at this level that's nothing out of the ordinary and there are plenty more to beat to extend that run to four.

We prefer Kalashnikov though who finished runner-up in last years Supreme – crucially on heavy ground. He'll need to reverse the result from the Kingsmaker at Sandown which was won by Glen Forsa. Conditions make that a real possibility in my eyes.

I also like Us and Them to run a decent race at a bigger 14/1. Already with a host of second places in reasonably tight fields this season - two of those behind the well respected Le Richebourg, and with proven form when the going gets heavy. He cannot be without some sort of chance can he?

1pt e/w Kalashnikov at 8/1 (Bet365 for the 4/1 free bet offer)

1pt e/w Kalashnikov at 15/2 with Paddy Power for Money Back if 2nd, 3rd, 4th)

1pt e/w Us and Them at 14/1 Sky Bet (4 places 1/5 odds)

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