Brexit - The market view

It's been another massive day in Parliament today. Not only were eight indicative votes held to establish Parliament's support for various options to move forward, but Theresa May also confirmed that she would step aside if he deal is passed by the house.

But what happens next? We've taken a glance at the Betfair Exchange Markets on Wednesday evening to try to unravel some of the riddles.

Theresa May, General Election and the Conservative Party

With May promising to step aside if her deal goes through, May is now into 1.36 to leave her offer before the UK leaves the EU. Of course, that doesn't mean a General Election - and the betting if reversed in a race between the UK Leaving the EU (1.7) and a General Election being held (2.06).

Nevertheless, it's considered pretty much 50/50 about whether we see a General Election within the year - currently trading at 1.97 that we do see one this year, and interestingly the Conservative Party remain odds-on to win the most seats in the next election at this point, but 3.15 to command a majority.

Michael Gove is now 5.2 favourite to lead the party next, with Boris Johnson 6.8 and Jeremy Hunt 8.6. Lord help us!

The Indicative Votes

There was plenty of support for a 2nd Referendum on the final deal, but currently there is no market to guide us on the likelihood of this outcome. The markets do make "No" a solid 1.4 favourite in the "EU Referendum before 2020" market, but it's not clear cut that it would be such a vote.

We are still heavily odds-on (1.3) that we won't see Article 50 revoked, which kind of answers that question, and April-June 2019 is still seen as the most likely "leave" date - 2.22 favourite. An exit later in the year is a 7.8 chance, while remaining within the EU until 2022 isn't out of the question - its 4.0 we leave after 2021.

Will we leave without a deal?

It seems unlikely - MPs have made it pretty clear we don't want to fall out that way, and the Betfair markets make it 1.24 that we don't see that outcome, and 5.0 that we do.

So there we go, a quick round up, which should at least add a little context to myriad of questions popping up about what will, may or won't happen next.