The Masters 2019

What a time it is to be alive! 10 places on the Masters, and it’s not just Sky Bet this year – Paddy Power, Betfair and Corals have joined the party this year, while Bet365 offer eight places, and a host of others give seven. Several years ago I remember the furious debates within the trading room about whether jumping to the bonus sixth place was bookmaking suicide!

We’ve tipped eight e/w bets over the past two renewals since StattoBets appeared on the scene, and landed places at 25/1, 80/1, 22/1 and 40/1 from those – with Justin Rose agonizingly close as the 25/1 shot in 2017 (missed out in a play off) and Rickie Fowler finished second at 22/1 last year.

We head back to the trends for 2019, which have proved so successful at predicting the winner over the years. You want to be finding players who can hit the greens reliably, so those with strong GIR stats (Greens in Regulation) are important, while missing them can be forgiven if you have strong scrambling stats.

On the greens, a decent putting average has always been an area the winning players perform strongly at, while Par 5 Performance is also a pretty important metric when it comes to reaching the top of the leaderboard here, along with Bogey Avoidance.

We noted last year for the importance of the Par Fives that: “the past 10 winners of this event have shot a combined (-6) on Par-3s, (-24) on Par-4s and a whopping (-86) on Par-5s!”.

Those stats updated now read (-2) on Par 3s, (-30) on Par 4s and a massive (-99) on Par 5s with Patrick Reed gaining 13 of his overall 15 shots against Par on the long holes.

Other Key Trends

[if !supportLists]· [endif]Playing a full weekend at Augusta in the prior year is certainly one. Every winner back to Tiger Woods in 1996 had made the cut here the previous year. (Patrick Reed bucked this trend in 2018)

[if !supportLists]· [endif]Each of the last eleven winners were aged under 40 – not good news for Henrik Stenson, Tiger Woods or Phil Mickelson

[if !supportLists]· [endif]Ten of the last 11 winners were in the World Top 30, and eight of those inside the Top 20.

[if !supportLists]· [endif]Eight of the last 11 winners had posted at least a Top 20 finish at Augusta previously.

[if !supportLists]· [endif]Ten of the last 11 winners had posted at least a top 10 already that season, eight of whom had finished in the top three of an event, and five of whom had won an event that season.

Our Picks

Let’s start with last year’s nearly man, Rickie Fowler, who is available at 18/1 generally or 16/1 with Sky Bet or Betfair for the full 10 places in their generous e/w market. Fowler was superb last year and just happened to run into an almost unbeatable performance from Patrick Reed.

He comes into the event in decent form this year, having won the Waste Management Phoenix Open, and also carded runner-up spot in the Honda Classic. Add in his decent course form, which saw him placed 2nd last year, and further finishes of 11th, 12th and 5th in his last five appearances, and he looks well set for another big weekend. He ticks most of the trend boxes – the right sort of age fit, winning form this season and getting round easily last year.

Dustin Johnson is another with really strong credentials ahead of this one. His overall fit is excellent, with solid placings in each of the Par 5 Scoring Average, GIR and Scrambling performance tables. It’s proved key previously with the American finishing inside the top 10 in each of his last three appearances (10th, 4th, 6th) and he also grabbed a 13th place in 2013.

In terms of recent form, he has already walked away with the WGC – Mexico Championship title, and placed 5th at the Players Championship and 6th at the Valspar Championship. Of couse he also opened the season with a 4th place in the Tournament of Champions. He is just 9/1, which might not hugely appeal as a win price, but you’re getting incredible e/w value about a supremely reliable player with proven course form.

In eight appearances this season Hideki Matsuyama has already posted as many top tens (3) as he did last season and has risen back up to 26th in the World Rankings. He’s previously been as high as 5th, demonstrating what a capable campaigner he is, and he currently ranks 35th on Par-5 Scoring, 23rd for GIR and 2nd for Scrambling. He claimed a share of 5th here in 2015, and a decent 7th in 2016. Since then he’s slipped down the field, but 11th and 19th have been steady enough returns to believe we should give him another chance this week at 25/1.

Next we have Matt Kuchar – a man whom we tipped up at 80/1 in 2017 and duly got him home in the places for a decent payout. He’s 35/1 this time around, but looks in better shape than he has in a good few years after winning the Sony Open, finishing 2nd in the WGC Match Play and grabbing 4th in the Phoenix Open. He also shared 7th last time in in the Valero Texas Open, and looks a real force right now. With four top eight finishes (3rd in 2012, 8th in 2013, 5th in 2014 and 4th in 2017) he absolutely loves this course, and there is no way he is a 7/1 shot to finish in the top ten this time out – which is what the each way terms offer you.

Another man with a love affair here is Paul Casey – a man whom we backed last year only to see him finish in 15th place. That was hit worst effort in recent years, having gone T6 in 2015, T4 in 2016 and 6th in 2017. Those results added to T6 in 2004, T10 in 2007 and T11 in 2008. He’s a real course expert based on those numbers. This season he ranks 5th in Par 5 Scoring which we know is a major box to tick, and he comes here in hot form – having posted five top ten finishes in nine starts this year. That included a win (Valspar Championship), two 2nds (AT&T and SMBC Singapore Open) and a 3rd (WGC Mexico).

2pts e/w Rickie Fowler at 16/1 (Sky Bet or Betfair Sportsbook)

2pts e/w Dustin Johnson at 10/1 (Betfair)

1pts e/w Hideki Matsuyama at 25/1 (Coral, Betfair, Sky Bet)

1pt e/w Matt Kuchar at 35/1 (Betfair)

2pts e/w Paul Casey at 22/1 (Sky Bet)

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