Scottish Round Up

I had to take a double take when I saw Ross County at 8/11 to beat Partick this weekend, and I’m convinced that price will feel like a wet-dream come Saturday lunchtime. All our shot data shows that not only are they top of the table, but they are also playing their most penetrative football of the season right now and are most definitely the side to beat in the division. They have some work still to do in order to get over the winning line, and Dundee United are chasing hard, so there shouldn’t be any complacency.

They also boast an exceptionally strong home record this season – winning 12 of their 16 matches in the division when hosting, and have conceded just nine goals in front of their own fans. With a 12 game form record of 8-2-2 we should be trusting them to turn up and deliver the good again.

Partick improved considerably after Christmas, but may have run out of gas now – winning just twice on their last nine. They aren’t as bad as their league placing suggests, but Ross still represent great value this weekend.

2.2pts Ross County to beat Partick at 8/11 (General)

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League One

Forfar v Dumbarton has caught my eye in League One, where goals look a certainty. Our model has this one coming out with an expectancy of a shade over three goals, and Over 2.5 goals have landed in a high proportion of games for both sides.

Forfar have landed 3+ goals in 22 of their 39 games, and six of their last seven, but the real trend comes in on Dumbarton, who just to get going at both ends of the park. They have played 39 games in all competitions with 3+ landing in 26 of those. In fact, no fewer than 17 saw 4+ goals!

More recently nine of Dumbarton’s last ten have gone 3+ and six 4+. We reckon small stakes on the Over goals in this one is the way to go.

1pt Over 2.5 Goals at 4/6 (Will Hill)

1pt Over 3.5 Goals at 13/8 (General)

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League Two

Annan host Stirling this week, and despite sitting 4th and 5th in the table, the Play-Offs are already way out of sight for Stirling, showing the vast difference between the sides this season. Annan have accumulated 56 points, a +25 Goal Difference and a +58 shot difference over the season. For Stirling, they have been best of the also rans, but have just 44 points, a flat goal difference and a -8 shot difference.

Annan are also playing very well right now – their 9-1-2 record on the form-table is impressive, and they have played Peterhead (twice), Edinburgh (twice) and Clyde (twice) within that run, making it even more noteworthy.

Stirling have record 6-1-5 on the same tally, but have played the top three just twice in that run, so must be taken with a pinch of salt. Their run-in sees them place Annan, Peterhead and Edinburgh in their last four, which is far from ideal.

Annan look overpriced in this one at 8/11 with a host of firms. I expect they will go off nearer 4/7 personally.

2.2pts Annan to beat Sirling at 8/11 (General)

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