Scottish League One

Stranraer and Brechin are in a real relegation battle - make no mistake. It's just a tight section this year that just 12 points split Brechin in 9th (in the relegation playoff spot) from Montrose in 4th (in the playoff spot for promotion to the Championship). These two are 8th and 9th.

One of the key things at this level, given the small squad sizes, is to pay particular attention to recent shot data and performance metrics, helping us to gauge where a particular set of players are at.

Right now, looking at the 6-game and 10-game shot data metrics, Brechin look in a world of trouble. Notably over the last ten games they have managed to record just 66-133 in shots, and 27-47 in shots on target versus their opponents. Stranrear by way of comparison have tabled numbers of 87-98 for shots and 35-44 for shots-on-target.

Overall that translates to about 0.6 goals "better" on a neutral ground, so throw in a small home advantage, and lower chance of a draw than in most leagues (remember our column "Football by Numbers") and we have a decent angle into Stranraer. The Blues have collected 15 points from their last 10 matches, compared to just 10 for Brechin.

2pts Stranraer to beat Brechin at Evens (General)

#Football