Premier League Darts - Week 13

Rob Cross v Michael Smith

While Rob Cross is enjoying a tremendous Premier League season - just three defeats all season - Michael Smith is enduring the final few weeks before elimination. I never like to argue too much about motivation in Darts - in fact arguably the lower the pressure, the easier to perform, and it's hardly a sport when you need to put in "extra effort". I won't therefore go there on this one.

What is a certainty however is the form in which these two players arrive here. Cross has reached back-to-back Semi-Finals in the German Grand Prix and the German Open, and was a finalist in the UK Open and European Darts Open. He's playing very well indeed.

Since the start of March he's played 36 matches. Of those he has won 26 and averaged over 100 in 17. Three of his nine defeats came to Michael van Gerwen. Compare that to Smith, who has won 27 from 44, but averaged over 100 in just 13.

Then we have the head-to-head - Cross has a career 13-3 head-to-head advantage, and 6-2 over the past 18 months. He seems to know how to play against Smith. Interviews with Cross suggest he's far more relaxed than he was last season, and results are excellent.

In the maximum markets, I'm going the other way. Smith has hit 48 in the Premier League so far in 150 leg - a rate of 0.32 per leg and almost bang on his long term rate. Expect more of the same. Cross has landed 38 in 143 legs - 0.26 per leg, so even a slight increase there would still make Smith an even money shot. At 11/10 to hit the most Smith is value here.

Finally we've backed it a few times, but Michael Smith at 7/4 to hit over 100 with his first three darts continues to be value at Bet Fred with 7/4 on offer. It's paid handsomely over the duration of the season, so why stop now?

2pts Rob Cross to beat Michael Smith at Evens (Boyles, Sporting)

1pt Michael Smith Most 180s at 11/10 (General)

2pts Michael Smith to score over 100 1st Three Darts at 7/4 (BetFred)

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Peter Wright v Mensur Suljovic

Mensur Suljovic is enjoying a pretty decent season - and there are enough reasons to think he's still being under-rated in this one. 2018 was a massive breakthrough season for Suljovic at long last, we he reached the final of the World Match Play, and the semi-finals of the Champions League, Masters, GSOD and Grand Prix.

Peter Wright's break-through was arguably 2017, and since then he's been struggling to reproduce the form that saw him reach four major finals.

Looking at this season's Premier League, Suljovic has a +4 leg difference compared to Wright's -18, and he's won 30 legs against the throw, with Wright managing just 18. He's also won five if his last eight, while Wright hasn't won since week 5 - and eight game run.

Wright continues to experiment with his darts and has a woeful 1-7 head-to-head record against Suljovic since the start of 2018.

2pts Mensur Suljovic to beat Peter Wright at Evens (General)

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Daryl Gurney v Michael van Gerwen

MvG continues to operate at the top of his game. He's a machine quite frankly and you bet against him at your peril. He's won seven of his last 11 events now since the World Championships, and when you consider two of those he didn't win were there shorter format PDPA events in Wigan, you see just how well he is playing. In 25 matches since the UK Open, he has averaged over 100 in 18 and lost just twice.

He always opens strongly, so we'll back the "Over 100 1st Three Darts" with Bet Fred once again (when will they learn!?) at 6/4 - we make it 11/10 in this one, and we've enjoyed some success in the correct score markets this season, so let's chuck another dart there, and plump for the 8-4 and 8-3 scoreline. He's breaking with such ease at the moment both look likely runners at 5/1 and 7/1 respectively.

2pts MvG to score over 100 1st Three Darts at 6/4 (BetFred)

1pt MvG to win 8-4 at 5/1 (BetVictor)

1pt MvG to win 8-3 at 7/1 (Sky Bet)

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James Wade v Gerwyn Price

Two highly in-form players meet here. As well as Mensur Suljovic has been playing, if he steals away a spot in the semi-finals from either of these two it would be a terrible shame. Someone has to miss out of course, and it will be interesting finding out who.

Wade is really enjoying a revival - his appearance in the Final of the Masters was only his second final appearance in a major event since 2016, but he looks back to his best now, while Price is still forcing us to ask questions about just how high he can go. My guess is No.2 in the World personally, but time will tell.

I think the bookies had it about right here, making Wade their slight favourite, and I can't take them on either way. I could be tempted into a bet on Wade most 180s, but it's very marginal.

Perhaps the best bet could be James Wade to score between 90-100 inclusive on his 1st three darts. He's absolutely straight down the line on the 20s, with a phenomenal efficiency. His 140 rate isn't as high as it should be with that vertical consistency though, and as a result the 2/1 on him hitting 90-100 inclusive is too big with BetFred here.

1pt Wade to score 90-100 1st Three Darts at 2/1 (BetFred)

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