League Two - Best Bets

Grimsby have been incredibly streaky this year, and making a case for them on the form-line alone is certainly challenging, after just one win in their last 12 matches. At home though, they have been more convincing however - their last eight have seen them win four and draw two.

Crewe have been in decent form - driven by home wins over Forest Green, Yeovil, Notts County and Crawley recently, but away they have struggled. 15 of their 19 wins this season have come at home, while 12 of their 18 defeats have been on the road.

With the pressure off now for both sides and that final-day feeling it's not unreasonable to fancy Grimsby here. Backing home sides in dead-rubbers produces regular profits and the 8/5 feels long on the hosts in this one.

Our bookings model makes Grimsby v Crewe one of the tamest possible fixtures of the season on the data, and Craig Hicks in charge is a pretty run of the mill referee, so there is no reason he will spoil the calm. Eight of Crewe's 22 away matches this season have seen under 25 bookings points, and seven of their last nine. For Grimsby 13 of their 22 home matches have gone under 25 booking points, and seven of their last eight.

1pt Grimsby to beat Crewe at 8/5 (General)

2pts Under 25 booking points in Grimsby v Crewe at 11/10 (Sky Bet)

Another dead rubber is the tussle between Oldham and Northampton.

Last season dead-runners produced only 68% of the card totals compared to standard league games, and that's an interesting factor for this match. Thomas Bramall is in charge - a man who has shown just three red cards in 43 games. In those 43 matches, he's shown under 25 bookings points (10 for a Yellow, 25 for a Red) in 28 - 65% of matches. This has to be an under cards game, and Under 25 booking points appeals at evens with Sky Bet in this one.

The bet would have won in nine from 22 matches at Oldham, and the same for Northampton away matches, so once you factor in the referee and the occasion there is simply no way this can be anything but an odds-on shot.

3pts Under 25 bookings pts in Oldham v Northampton at Evens (Sky Bet) (4/5 is acceptable with Will Hill)

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