League One Play-Off Trends

Let's start with the trends.

• Sides finishing 3rd and 4th have filled 30 of the 46 finalist slots over the past 23 years – a 65% strike rate!

• The side finishing the season with the strongest goal difference have reached the final in 70.4% of occasions, and been promoted 32% of the time.

• The side finishing with the worst goal difference have been promoted just 13% of the time, and reached the final just 30.4% of the time.

• Finishing the season in “form” (i.e. the most points collected in the final six regular season games) appears to have very little correlation with a successful promotion push. There is a loose correlation over the three divisions as a whole.

The play-offs look wide open in League One this season – the strongest indicators of success have been league finishing position and goal difference, but there is next to nothing separating Charlton, Portsmouth and Sunderland – just three points and a single goal between the three.

One thing we can say is that Doncaster are the rank outsiders though – they finish the season reasonably well, but the important factors are all working against them. This could potentially give Charlton the edge, with the most straight-forward route to Wembley. They finished the season in tremendous form, winning 15 points from their final six matches, and their +33 goal difference was actually better than 22 of the 46 sides promoted automatically over the past 23 seasons, showing just how strong they have been. Their 88 points would have been enough to avoid the play-offs completely in 16 of the past 20 years.

Portsmouth and Sunderland looks a tough one to call in the second semi-final, with Sunderland getting plenty of results throughout the season despite posting pretty poor shot numbers consistently. You don't reach the play-offs by being poor though, so there are reasons enough to doubt the shot-data for them in my eyes.

I'm happy to leave this one alone, and stick with the side who posted the joint best goal difference, finished 3rd in the table, and finished in the best form (15 points from 6 matches). Charlton are the side to beat, and 5/2 is too long with Black Type. 9/4 elsehwere is long enough for those without an account. The 8/11 to qualify for the final also looks at least a couple of ticks too long.

1pt Charlton to win the play-offs at 9/4-5/2 (General)

2.2pts Charlton to reach the final at 8/11 (SkyBet)

#Football