League Two Play-Offs - Tips and Trends

Let's start with the basic trends from the last 23 season's in League Two and debunk the myth that the play-offs are "a lottery". They aren't.

• As with other divisions, league finishing position is the strongest indicator of play-off success. Sides finishing 4th have qualified for the final in 61% of seasons, those finishing 5th win through to the final 56% of the time, while 6th go through just 44% and 7th just 39%.

• Sides who have finished 4th have been promoted 43% of the time.

• Season Goal Difference has been inconclusive, with no discernible pattern in League Two, although looking at all leagues combined does suggest a benefit to finishing the season

• Finishing the season in “form” has been a strong factor in League Two – the side who have finished the season with the fewest points from their last six games have been promoted just 11.4% of the time, while those who have collected the most have gone up 43% of the time.

This year Mansfield are the obvious favourites for promotion – they finished in 4th, and with the strongest goal difference of the four competing sides. Their end of season form was a concern though – winning just seven points from their final six games. Newport definitely have a chance to upset them in the semi-finals – they finished the season bang in form, and there will have been plenty of sides in worst positions coming into these stage.

Forest Green tackle Tranmere in the other semi-final, and I’m astonished to see some layers making Forest Green outsiders here. They finished the season eight goals better off than Tranmere for a start off – ensuring 5th place and the marginal advantage of playing away first.

Their end of season form was also considerably stronger – collecting 13pts to Tranmere’s 6pts in the final six match run, although being fair, their run-in was a lot easier.

Recommended Bets

1pt Mansfield and Forest Green to make the play-off final at 5/2 (Sky Bet)

2.2pts Forest Green to qualify for the final at 10/11 (General)

#Football