Premier League Picks

Just two very brief thoughts from our Premier League Writer before sending him off on a well earned break at the end of a long 2018/19 season.

Fulham can beat Newcastle at 8/5

There is no doubt that Rafa Benitez has done a grand job at Newcastle this season, with a 14th place finish looking likely now. They travel to "loose horse" Fulham for the final day. I say "loose horse" because that's exactly how they have been behaving since relegation was confirmed, creating all sorts of havoc upon those around them still jostling for a result. They have inflicted defeats upon Everton, Cardiff and Bournemouth in their last four matches, ensuring those opponents knew the season wasn't over yet for Fulham. That gives them plenty of genuine form coming into this.

A second reason to give them a chance is their home form against sides outside the big-six this season. They have collected 21 of their 26 points this season from such fixtures - a 6-3-3 record. Craven Cottage has very much been a safe haven for them. It was results away from home, and those against the big-six which has seen them relegated.

Finally, we have final day dead-rubber syndrome. Long term trends collected by StattoBets show a winning record achieved over the past four years betting on home sides in end-of-season dead-rubbers. The power of the home crowd and the desire to finish the season on a high really does seem to be a thing, returning an 8% ROI in the games we studied.

At 8/5 Fulham are too big here.

2.5pts Fulham to beat Newcastle at 8/5

Burnley to beat Arsenal at 9/4

Arsenal would need an eight goal turnaround to leap frog Spurs into 4th in the Premier League, so it's very difficult to imagine them putting in a spirited performance at Burnley. They are into a Europa League Final, and will surely have more than half an eye on that match already, whilst their recent away performances have left a lot to be desired.

We tipped them to lose at Leicester and that was their seventh away defeat in 11 matches. Since then they have been to Valencia and won, but that was an end-to-end match of desperation in the end, so can be overlooked. So far this season Arsenal have lost at Leicester, Wolves, Everton, West Ham and Southampton among others, so is a defeat at Burnley that hard to imagine? Not for me, and I'll chuck a point at that one.

1pt Burnley to beat Arsenal at 9/4 (General)

Wolves might make second half hay

This one is quite random. The thinking goes a bit like this.

City and Liverpool are both very likely to win. Liverpool have the tougher match. It's perfectly reasonable to think that City could be well ahead by half-time, essentially killing the title race and turning minds to European Finals. If that's the case, we could see Liverpool's superstars removed from the firing line during the second half if the race is all but over.

It's also possible we reach half-time at Anfield with honours even. If that happens, Liverpool will have no option but to throw the kitchen sink at things if the race is still on. That opens things up and reduces the chance of a draw. Silly things could happen.

Finally, we could have the situation of Liverpool being out of sight, and easing up at the end.

All this leads to Wolves winning the second-half being the bet of interest at a huge 13/2. Lots of ifs and buts, but its nearly 7/1, so has to be value.

1pt Wolves to win the 2nd Half at 13/2 (General)

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