Premier League Darts - Final Week

The Final Week of the regular season in the Premier League comes from Leeds Arena this week and it promises to be a cracker. With chasers (fifth and sixth placed) Gerwyn Price and Daryl Gurney both facing what look winnable matches, and James Wade (3rd) and Mensur Suljovic (4th) facing Rob Cross and Michael van Gerwen, the night could barely have been laid out better for organisers.

Gerwyn Price v Peter Wright

In the first match, I'm going to suggest that Peter Wright hasn't fully read the script, and has it in him to kill off Price's hopes of making the finals.

Wright has been eliminated of course and has lost his last five, and seven of his last eight in the Premier League, but the Scotsman reached the final of the European Darts Grand Prix over the weekend, which saw him beat MvG in the Quarter Final.

We know there is very little love between Gerwyn Price and anyone else on tour after a number of flash points lately, and Wright will certainly not be in the mood to do him any favours.

Head-to-head wise, Wright has a fabulous 12-3 advantage in all meetings between the men (1 draw) and more recently in 2018-19 he's also 4-2 ahead (1 draw).

At 6/4 Wright looks the value in this one.

1pt Peter Wright to beat Gerwyn Price at 6/4 (General)

Daryl Gurney v Michael Smith

Daryl Gurney will need to win to keep his chances of qualifying alive, but if he does then he stands a very good chance given that Suljovic faces MvG immediately afterward, and James Wade would need something against Rob Cross. If either Suljovic or Wade lose, then Gurney would qualify. He could also slip through with a draw if Suljovic gets beaten in the third match of the night.

For me Gurney is probably short enough - the bookies can't really split him and Smith. Gurney is playing better, but Smith has a good head-to-head record (7-4) between the pair, so it's a tough one to call.

Instead I'll hit the usual "Michael Smith to Score Over 100" with his first three darts with Betfred at 13/8. They have trimmed it slightly this week, but not enough. It should be more like 11/8.

We'll also chuck a point at the draw in this one at 4/1 with Betway. There have actually been eight draws since the elimination stage when we moved to a best of 14 format - a rate of a draw every 2.5 matches.

1pt Michael Smith to score over 100 1st three darts at 13/8 (Betfred)

1pt Match to be a draw at 4/1 (Betway)

Michael van Gerwen v Mensur Suljovic

MvG may well be able to determine who makes it through to the semi-finals, but a man of his pedigree surely doesn't really care. He has a decent 12-4 head-to-head advantage over Suljovic as well, so odds around 1/3 on the Dutchman winning are probably a reasonable assessment, although it's worth nothing he's only won nine of his 15 matches this season. Perhaps there is marginal value in the draw at 6/1?

One market which definitely does offer value is the first three darts score for van Gerwen, which is on offer at 11/8 with BetFred. It should be 11/10, and it's won plenty of times for us recently. Lets stick with a winning formula in this one.

2pts MvG to score over 100 1st three darts at 11/8 (Betfred)

James Wade v Rob Cross

Finally, this could be a massive match or a dead rubber by the time it comes around. You do get that sneaky feeling that they could be happy to see Gerwyn Price eliminated, but it's hard to see either man not giving it their best and it should be a cracker.

James Wade is in such lovely form at the moment, while Cross is back in the form of 2017 which saw him catapulted into the world's elite.

In our favourite stats market, Wade is a decent bet to open the match with 90-100 inclusive. He is straight as anything on the board and his proportion of 100's is significantly higher than any player on tour. The 90-100 (inc) is 2/1 which is a good few points too long.

He's also 2/1 to win the match with a host of firms, which looks long. Over the past two season's he is 4-2 up on the head-to-head, and his form is superb in general this season - semi-finalist in the Austrian Ope recently, Winner of both PDPA Players Championship events in Barnsley during mid-April, and winner again at the same venue in event 9.

This should be a cracker, but it could go either way.

1pt Wade to beat Cross at 2/1 (General)

1pt Wade to score 90-100 inc 1st three darts at 2/1 (Betfred)

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