England (W) v Denmark (W)

The penultimate warm-up match for Phil Neville's England side comes against Denmark on Saturday, and England should be far too good for the Danes. The bookies certainly have it right in making the Lionesses 1/3 favourites.

England are ranked 3rd in the World on the Fifa Rankings, and unlike the men's formula, the ranking are actually pretty useful for the women - with an Elo scale applied to rank the teams. Denmark are down in 17th place, with 1840 points on the Elo scale - compared to 2049 points for the English.

England come into this in decent form, having won the SheBelieves Cup in March, and they look in fine fettle, while Denmark have lost nine of their last 15 internationals, and seven of their last eight away matches.

Our projections make England somewhere close to 2 goals better than their rivals on average in this one. Looking at the last 15 matches in which sides of England's standard (Australia, Germany, France and England used as a sample) have played with home advantage against sides of Denmark's standard (New Zealand, Austria, Italy, Belgium, Iceland, China and Denmark taken as the sample), no fewer than 11 have seen the hosts prevail by two or more goals.

That's a 10/11 shot with Bet365.

There could also be a decent run of goals - of those 15 matches, seven saw over 3.5 goals, including Denmark losing at France recently. In this sort of match up it's not unusual to see both sides getting involved in the goals.

2.2pts England (-1) to beat Denmark at 10/11 (General)

1pt Over 3.5 Goals at 13/8 (Bet365)

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