French Open Day 3 (Tuesday)

Tuesday sees Martin Klizan face Mikhail Kukushkin, with the Slovak still seeking his first win against his Kazakhstani rival. The pair have only played twice before, with Kukushkin perhaps fortunate to have prevailed in all three tie-breaks, so in truth things have been very level. Neither meeting was too recently either.

Klizan is really comfortable on clay, playing 57% of career matches on the dirt, with a win % of 64% on the surface. Both numbers stack up well against Kukushkin who has played just 39% of his matches on clay, winning just 56% of them.

Kukushkin also comes here having lost five consecutive matches on the surface, which means he hasn’t won a match (or indeed a set) since 15th April – over six weeks.

Klizan looks the much better prepared here – over the past two seasons, against players ranked 25-100 on clay, he has won a combined 103.7% of service/receive points (63.6%/40.1%), while Kukushkin has achieved a more modest 99% (61.8%/37.2%). Inferio at both ends of the course, Klizan should be the better man here and is worth backing at 4/6.

1.5pts Klizan to beat Kukushkin at 4/6 (General)

Staying odds-on, I like Dusan Lajovic who should be more than a match for Thiago Monteiro.

Lajovic has a 2-1 head-to-head advantage, but the match he lost was by virtue of retirement so must  be considered with caution. At No.33 in the world he is considerably more capable as an all-round player, but his clay court form stands up to scrutiny – a 60% win rate from 61% of his career matches on the surface. Five defeats in his last six matches could be a concern, but Laslo Djere, Leonardo Mayer and Fabio Fognini are no mugs in that run. Prior to that he was a finalist at the Monte Carlo Masters in his first clay event of the European season.

Now Monteiro is very much a clay man. 443 matches on the surface in his 548 career matches – a whopping 81%, but you’d have expected a better winning rate than 58% given that specialism. He’s decent make no mistake, but whether he has enough for a player like Lajovic seems unlikely to me.

Looking at some more recent numbers their 2018/19 clay matches against players ranked 50-100 seems a fair place to start. Lajovic has a 105.7% combined service/receive record from his 12 matches (64.1%/41.6%), while Monteiro is just 96.7% (60.8%/35.9%).

The 1/2 with Ladbrokes looks decent enough for this one, or try the games handicap markets if you are after a slightly longer price from the same angle.

2pts Lajovic to beat Monteiro at 1/2 (General)

#Tennis