Womens WC - Australia v Italy

This should be the most competitive match of the World Cup so far as Australia (ranked 7th) take on Italy (ranked 16th). There are just 135 Elo points between the sides which makes this a pretty close encounter. Nevertheless, Australia are 4/6 to win this.

Let's start with Italy, who are in their first World Cup Finals since 1999 - a 20 year absence! Things are certainly looking up for Italy, but it's also fair to say they are in the second tier of the European contingent. They reached the finals having topped Group 6, pipping Belgium and Portugal to the post, and in fairness, they were probably fortunate - winning the group with seven wins from eight games, and a +15 goal difference. They won by a single goal in Romania, in Portugal and at home to Belgium. Eight of their 19 goals came against minnow Moldova.

Australia rode their luck through qualifying as well to be fair - topping Group B in the Asian finals, but only on goal difference, as they drew with both Japan and South Korea - all sides finishing on five points. In the semi-finals they beat Thailand on penalties, before losing to Japan in the final. They have been testing themselves against good teams in the run-up, and that gives us confidence they should be strong favourites here.

They lost a double-header against 8th place ranked Netherlands (3-0 and 3-1) and United States (No.1) 5-3. Other notable results saw then beat New Zealand (No.19) 2-0, draw with England (No.3) 1-1, lose 2-0 to France (No.4) and beat Japan and Brazil.

While Italy have been winning plenty of warm-ups, they haven't played the better sides at all.

In terms of weapons to get the job done, Australia will rely largely on Samantha Kerr, who at 25, remains in her prime and has 31 goals in 77 games. Mary Fowler is the young-gun everyone is getting excited about - at just 16 though this could come too soon, despite a host of European clubs chasing her.

We'll back Australia in this one, who are out to 8/11 on Betfair now.

2.2pts Australia to beat Italy at 8/11 (Betfair)

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