Women's WC - Norway v Nigeria

Norway remain without their "potential" star player Ada Hegerberg, who remains absent in protest at the lack of funding and set-up in the Womens game. Here retirement in late 2017 may not have been fully reflected in Norway's ranking just yet, but they have had time to get used to her absence. It's not dissimilar to a player like Ronaldo or Messi dropping out in the mens match, so shouldn't be overlooked. She's scored over a goal a game through her career, and with her Norway would have been one of the tournament favourites.

Remaining in the squad are players such as Maria Thorisdottir (32 apps/1 goal Df) and Maren Mjelde (136/19 Df) (both Chelsea) and Caroline Hansen (72/25 Md) and Kristine Minde (97/9 Md) from Wolfsburg. Up top they also have Isabell Herlovsen who has 60 international goals.

So they clearly remain a very good side indeed, winning 13 of their 19 matches since the start of 2018. In that run they have scored three or more goals in eight, and "Over 2.5 Goals" has landed in 14, and "Over 3.5" in six.

Nigeria are a world away in terms of quality - ranked 38th, and have only progressed from the Group Stage in one of their seven World Cups. Over that run they have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 16 matches, and recorded a (-38 goal difference). Their average World Cup scoreline has been 0.81 v 2.54.

That scoreline is fairly close to that which our model predicts for this match - suggesting Norway should expect to score 2.87 goals on average, and Nigeria 0.73. Nigeria's history as African champions in 11 of the last 13 renewals means nothing unfortunately.

We're trusting our Elo based model in this one, which suggests backing Norway handicap is a cracking bet. The Asian Handicap line is (-1.5) goals, and that looks decent value in my eyes. You can get 1.88 on Norway (-1.5) on the exchanges, which is more than reasonable and represents a strong bet here.

We do fancy Nigeria to cause some troubles of their own however, so it could be worth supplementing it with some Over Goals wagers as well. Looking at past results of the sides is largely irrelevant in backing up this ascertain - Nigeria rarely play sides of European calibre, while Norway will almost never drop down to play a side like Nigeria, such is the depth of quality within Europe now.

4pts Norway (-1.5) Goals at 1.88 (Betfair Exchange)

2pts Over 3.5 Goals at 13/8 (Betfair Sportsbook)

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