Cameroon (W) v New Zealand (W)

It’s rare that I’ve been so torn coming into a match in terms of how to interpret the data. All the World Rankings and quality metrics point to a comfortable New Zealand victory here when you look at the long term data, but it’s impossible to make a strong case for them if you have been watching the games over the past fortnight.

While Cameroon have recorded a 1-4 goals for/against, New Zealand have chalked up 0-3. You might have expected that Cameroon has enjoyed a little more “luck” in returning such numbers, but the limited shot data from their two matches so far shows a New Zealand side who have turned up and been comfortably dominated. They have posted a miserly eight shots, whilst conceding 39 – comparing to 16 for Cameroon, and 26 against the Africans. That’s a strong indicator ahead of this one.

With both sides playing the majority of their matches in either friendlies or in more regional competitions, it’s entirely possible their FIFA rankings don’t truly reflect the pace of change in the game. New Zealand for instance have always been highly rated, have a terrific record in the OFC Championships, but have so far never won a World Cup match, and have lost 11 of their 14, with a 7-32 goals for/against so far since making their debut in 1991. The squad are well spread out around the Australian/New Zealand domestic leagues, as well as in Europe and North American, and bringing the individuals together may be quite a challenge.

Cameroon were expected to struggle in France, but have so far put up a better showing than anticipated. Unlike New Zealand they have tasted World Cup success – winning two fo their matches in 2015 and their overall World Cup records reads Won 2, Lost 4, Scored 10, Conceded 8. A 6-0 victory over Ecuador back in 2015 may have come against a minnow, but it surely helped their status, and narrow defeats to Japan, China and Canada certainly showed they a re competitive. The majority of the team are now playing for European sides – predominantly in France, and the National side surely has more potential for improvement that New Zealand by virtue of the investment in the Womens game here. For many this will feel like a home tournament (no fewer than seven of the starting line-up from their last match were based in France).

I’m siding with Cameroon here, at 2/1 with Betfair and Betway.

1pt Cameroon to beat New Zealand at 2/1

#Football