Wimbledon - De Minaur v Johnson

We've already talked about the potential of Taylor Fritz, but another who could be joining the next generation of superstars is Aussie Alex de Minaur. He has a career 28-13 record on grass, and has been shooting up the rankings - already up to 29 - not bad for a 20-year-old.

Reilly Opelka was the 2015 Wimbledon Junior Champion, but it could have been very different - he won in the first round against De Minaur, but only after a 13-11 final set triumph. In 2016 De Minaur went all the way to the final of the SW19 junior event.

Last season De Minaur marked himself out as a grass player to watch in reaching the final at Surbiton, and then winning the Nottingham Challenger the following week, and this really could be the year he makes the next step in his career - and let's not forget he has already won his first ATP Title (Sydney) and also made three ATP Tour finals in 2018.

Steve Johnson is at the other end - World No.71, and a typical American hard-courter. He is comfortable enough on the quicker courts, but has never particularly sought them out. It's important to note he was a title winner in Newport last season, but his run to the title saw him face Christian Harrison, Dudi Sela, Marcel Granollers and Ramkumar Ramanathan. He was no longer than 2/5 in any of those matches.

Johnson is steady enough, but I'm not sure why he is being backed in this one, and I'd prefer to take advantage of the opportunity to back De Minaur at 8/11 (longer on the exchanges) here.

My Serve-Bias database is one of my favourite possessions (don't tell the wife, she thinks its my wedding ring), and it's pointing reasonably strongly towards Johnson serving first in this one. That makes the 5/1 offered about De Minaur winning the opening set a slice of value.

3.3pts De Minaur to beat Johnson at 8/11

1pt De Minaur to win Set 1 6-4 at 5/1

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