Europa League

We've got a full card of Europe League action on Thursday, and that's thrown up a plethora of opportunities based on our European Elo ratings.

We'll start over in Moldova, where Sheriff Tiraspol take on Swedish side AIK. The relative strengths of their domestic leagues is a marked difference - your typical Moldovan challenger at this level scores somewhere around the 1200-1250 range, with Sheriff a little higher than that after three season's of dominance. Sweden is altogether more competitve, with the likes of Malmo, AIK, Norrkiping and Djurgarden regular contenders. They typically rank somewhere into the 1500's for a top side, and perhaps a little lower in a weaker season. They are however a much stronger proposition. At 15/8 the Swedes are well worth backing to come out ahead in this one, and I would make them favourites.

Staying with the Scandinavian sides, Midtjylland face Rangers and we reckon the Scots could struggle to land a result in this one. The Danes have opened their season with four straight wins, and finished last season in 2nd place, and were the standout runners up behind Copenhagen - they finished a full 15 points ahead of 3rd. Elo wise, we're got the hosts in around about 1550, which rates them somewhere close to Celtic on a neutral venue, so seeing them available at 8/5 to beat Rangers at home seems cracking value - especially given the Danes have already kicked off their season.

Next up is one rather harder to make the case for, as Illichivets take on AZ Alkmaar of Holland, with the visitors arguably too short here at odds-on away from home. Illichivets Mariupol finished fourth in the Ukraine division last season, although admittedly with only half the points of Shakhtar Donetsk. Regardless, the strength of the Ukraine league is noteworthy - sides such as Dynamo Kiev, Shakhtar and Zorya have been successful in recent years, and it is always a hard place to go to. This could be tight so we should take the hosts at 11/4 on the Draw No Bet market with Bet Victor.

Legia Warsaw host Atromitis Athinon, and it's the Greek side who interest us in this one. They finished fourth domestically last season, but it's a considerably stronger league than that of Poland, and it's hard to make Warsaw odds-on here as all the bookmakers do. The money is starting to come for Atromitos and I can see them getting something from this match. Perhaps the double chance at 10/11 is the best way to get behind the Greeks, or you could lay the hosts on the exchanges.

Finally I just can't make Apollon Limassol as long as 23/10 to win at Austria Vienna, who have lost both of their opening Bundesliga matches this season. They slipped into this competition after finishing fourth last season, but that saw them end on a negative goal difference and concede 48 goals in just 32 matches. A very similar performance level saw them finish 7th the season before. They have already leaked six goals in two matches this season, including three against newly promoted Swarovski Tirol. They look in a heap of trouble right now.

Recommended Bets

2pts AIK to beat Sheriff Tiraspol at 15/8 (General)

1pt Illichivets Mariupol to beat AZ Alkmaar Draw No Bet at 11/4

2pts Midtjylland to beat Rangers at 8/5 (UniBet)

1pt Atromitis Athinon/Draw double chance at 10/11 (Boyles

2pts Apollo Limassol to beat Austria Vienna at 23/10 (Bet365)

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