Thursday - Europa Qualifiers

Let's start in Finland, where HJK Helsinki entertain Riga FC for an important second leg. The first leg in Latvia saw the pair share a 1-1 draw, but the statistics suggest Riga perhaps had the edge in that one on balance.

The relative Elo numbers for these two aren't a million miles apart, with Helsinki rated around 1230 pts and Riga FC hovering around 1190. That makes the hosts favourites, but we certainly shouldn't expect a foregone conclusion here and we'd make them around even money-11/10 or thereabouts.

The market disagrees and pitches them well-odds on, so a play at 11/10 with Wiliam Hill on the double chance Draw or Riga looks decent enough value in this one.

We tipped Apollon Limassol in the 1st leg fixtures, and they can qualify with ease after beating Austria Vienna on Thursday. Our ratings made them the better side in this match up, and the UEFA co-efficients agree as well, although they always need to be taken with a pinch of salt.

The market will still give you even money on the Cypriot side extending their lead in the second leg, and that looks a bet worth taking in my eyes. We wrote about the Austrian's form this season in the first leg preview, so wont rehash that, but I'd be a backer here at anything over 4/5, so we should back Apollon.

Partizan Belgrade scored at either end of their match with Turkish side Malatyaspor on Thursday, and their late penalty surely puts them in pole position in this one. Partizan are considered a much stronger side on the European stage, and came close to the group stage when losing out to Besiktas last season. Let's take a small bet on the visitors winning this one.

Suduva returned from Israel with a 2-1 lead in their tie with Maccabi Tel Aviv, and while it was probably a slightly fortuitous victory, it now leaves Tel-Aviv with plenty of work to do in Lithuania. There is a world of difference in quality of Israeli sides, and those in Lithuania, so we have to assume that we could see a regression to the mean expediencies in this one, so I'm more than happy to side with the visitors achieving their target of winning the match. They can be backed at 1.1 with Corals.

Finally, AEK Larnaca ground out a solid draw with Belgian side Gent in the first leg, building on their impressive 2nd round 7-0 aggregate win over Levski Sofia. Now Belgian sides are generally rated a bit higher than Cypriot sides, but it's not as vast as one might imagine, and the 1/2 top quotes on Gent winning this one could be a touch on the short side in my view. You can get 17/10 on Larnaca with a goal headstart here, which feels a good place to start. A draw would see the bet win.

Recommended Bets

1pt Riga/Draw on the Double Chance at 11/10 (Hills)

2pts Apollon Limassol to beat Austria Vienna at Evens (General)

1pt Partizan Belgrade to beat Malatyaspor at 9/4 (General)

2pts Maccabi Tel Aviv to beat Suduva at 1/1 (Coral)

2pts AEK Larnaca +1 to beat Gent at 17/10 (General)

#Football