Sunderland v Portsmouth

Already being billed as a potential title deciding fixture, Portsmouth travel to Sunderland hoping to strike first blood between the big boys this season. The shot-based evidence from the opening couple of fixtures suggests that the Black Cats’ impressive home record could be placed under threat in this lunch-time kick off in front of the Sky cameras.

Sunderland recorded a 12-10-1 home record in the league last season, with a +25 goal difference, and they have already drawn their opening game again this season. On one hand, losing just a single home game last season was impressive, there must also be doubts about a side who drew so many. The limited evidence from this season so far has seen the Mackems face Oxford at home, and Ipswich away. Their opening match with Oxford ended honours even, and while Sunderland probably had the edge in the game, it was also a fair outcome.

They drew again away at Ipswich, and that was definitely not a fair result – with Sunderland managing just a single shot on target to Ipswich’s seven. Having seen Ipswich face Burton on the opening day, they are far from world beaters, and Sunderland should surely have given a better account of themselves. The expected goals values from that game saw Ipswich post 3.0 and Sunderland 0.5 – all despite Ipswich taking the lead early in the game.

Portsmouth are a point better off, but performance levels have been much more impressive. They opened at Shrewsbury, where they limited the hosts to just three shots – only one of which hit the target. The Shrews posted just 0.2 expected goals in that one to Pompey’s 1.4, so to come away with nothing was harsh on the visitors.

They made up for it with a win over Tranmere, where they scored in the first half and then continue to pull away. A 2-0 win was more than fair and they look real title contenders at this stage.

It says plenty that John Marquis ended up at Portsmouth rather than Sunderland, who chased him for a good while. Despite Sunderland’s strong home record, we’re taking them on in this one, and the 21/10 on Pompey won’t last until kick-off. Mark our words on this one.

2pts Portsmouth to beat Sunderland at 21/10 (General)

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