Slovan Bratislava v PAOK Salonika

Our main pick in the Europa action tonight is a decent bet on PAOK in this match-up. The European Club Elo ratings make the Greek side a considerably superior outfit and I have a feeling the market could be over-reacting to some great recent form from the Slovakian hosts.

Slovan Bratislava are rated 1343 on the Elo scale, which is pretty typical for a top Slovakian side over the past five years and looks a reasonable enough gauge. If anything it might even be a touch higher than we might have anticipated.

Greek sides have been enjoying a resurgence in recent years, and PAOK are among the best of them. Any top Greek side is now typically ranked well above 1450, and as high as 1700. PAOK sit currently on 1658 pts. They missed out on the Champions League this season after losing 5-4 on aggregate to last season's semi-finalists Ajax. Let's not forget that Ajax were literally 30 seconds away from the final.

It's true a couple have moved on, but Dusan Tadic, Hakim Ziyech, Jan Klass Huntelaar and Daley Blind were among those who played last week against PAOK. The Dutch were awarded three penalties in that tie, so PAOK should consider themselves unlucky.

Slovan Bratislava have won their last nine matches in all competitions, with five coming in domestic leagues. The other four came against Dundalk (rated 1237) and Feronikeli of Kosovo (rated 1047). We should remember they went unbeaten all last season domestically, and lost just three matches in 2017/18

All in all, PAOK should be winning this one.

3pts PAOK to beat Slovan Bratislava at 21/20 (Hills, Betfair, Betway, Bet Victor)

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