Opelka v Fognini

Those who read this column regularly will know that tennis betting really is about surface bias. Which players perform better on which court type? This is a tried and tested rule, but very occasionally it can pay to break the rules - and that could be the case when Italian Fabio Fognini faces home-boy Reilly Opelka.

Fognini is a seasoned campaigner, known primarily for his volatile temperament, closely followed by his clay prowess. He's actually played 635 of his 987 career matches on clay, but you don't get into the worlds top 10 without some ability to mix it on other surfaces. He took the opening set against Rafael Nadal in Montreal a fortnight ago, and have won hard court tournaments in the past.

In round one he is an outsider against Opelka - a promising American youngster - still just 21. He made the semi-finals in Atlanta, which was his first main tour appearance at that stage of proceedings, but he is still something of a work in progress. Fognini is too long at 6/5 with William Hill in this one.

2.5pts Fognini to beat Opelka at 6/5 (William Hill)

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