EFL Cup (Tuesday)

The EFL Cup is always a lot of fun. We’ve been through a full cycle in the competition over the past decade, with the top sides always decent value originally before they blazed a trial in resting players which gave the lower league sides a fighting chance for five or six years in the opening rounds. Nowadays however a combinations of economics in the game and learning and prioritisation from the League One / Two sides means that the majority of those Premier League and Championship big guns are generally pretty safe once again these days. So where is the value this week?

Let’s start at Nottingham Forest who host local rivals Derby County. There is plenty of money spilling around at both Derby and Forest this season, but the depth of any Championship squad tends to drop off rapidly and we’re backing Forest in this one who looked to take the first round significantly more seriously than the Rams.

Forest did a decent job in the first round against Fleetwood, winning 1-0 with a handy enough looking squad, while Derby put out a pretty weak looking side with a couple of exceptions. Home advantage could be telling in this one and Forest look backable at 6/4

Cardiff entertain Luton, and while both are expected to ring the changes, you have to feel that a combination of the greater depth and quality of the Cardiff second XI, and the Warnock factor of always getting his sides up for matches could prove telling. It’s certainly true he wouldn’t lose a lot of sleep at the point of elimination from the competition, but it represents a good opportunity to keep his fringe players involved and fit.

While Luton ran out easy 3-1 winners over League One Ipswich in the first round, both sides played very young sides in that one and it wasn’t a lot more than an U23 match in all honesty. The defending at Luton has been suspect at first team level, so it seems unlikely the second-string will do much better.

It’s surprising to see Cardiff only a tiny fraction off odds-on here.

High flying Plymouth have a feel-good feeling running through the club at the moment and are understandably one of the favourites from promotion from League Two. If you’re looking through the cad searching for the most likely shocks, you might well rest a while as your pen passes onto the Pilgrims. They entertain Reading this week, who rested plenty in the first round and could be getting over-rated as strong favourites in this one.

Plymouth opened at 4/1 which was significantly too long, and we’ve probably just about got some value left at the 16/5 quotes which remain in this one. It’s a long old trek down for anyone, and it would be no surprise to see a few key players left behind ahead of next weekend’s fixtures.

Plymouth included Niall Canavan, Joe Riley, Danny Sawyer, Joe Edwards, Danny Mayor, Callum McFadzean and Ryan Taylor in the first round.

Millwall travel to Oxford this week, and our shot data suggests all is not well in the Lions Den. They rested plenty in the first round, while Oxford took it rather more seriously and must stand a chance of being among those capable of springing a surprise at odds of over 2/1 for a side playing at home.

Oxford have lost three on the spin so would welcome some good news, and their starting line-up from their 1st round match against Peterborough have started 24 League matches this season. The same statistic is just 14 for Millwall demonstrating just what a disposable competition this is for Neil Harris. Six of the line-up from the first leg are yet to start a league game this season.

Recommended Bets

1pt Oxford to beat Millwall at 21/10 (General)

1pt Nottingham Forest to beat Derby at 6/4 (General)

2pts Cardiff to beat Luton at 49/50 (Marathon)

1pt Plymouth to beat Reading at 16/5 (Bet365)

#Football