Tuesday - National League

A big NAP this midweek, where it's easy to make a strong case for Dover in their home match with Ebbsfleet.

Since arriving at Dover, Andy Hessenthaler has completely turned the side around. They were languishing near the bottom of the table when he joined nearly 12 months ago, whereupon he engineered a mid-table finish, and they are now sat a very handy 5th after the opening eight games.

Hessenthaler has recorded a 21-9-13 record since taking over, which improves to 20-8-9 when removing his opening six matches as he struggled to steady the ship. That returns an average of 1.83pts per game - or put another way, around an 84pt season.

They are very much contenders this season, and the shot data also bears that out strongly - Dover's 92 shots ranks well in the division (7th highest), while only 62 against ranks 2nd in the division. 45 on-target efforts ranks 2nd, while 35 against is fairly ordinary. There is every reason to be confident of their chances.

At the other end, Ebbsfleet are posting some fairly bad numbers, which backs up their position in the table (23rd and -9 goal difference already). They have already conceded 18 goals, which may be a touch unfortunately, but they are also struggling to create a great deal and have thus far managed just 69 shots this season (only Maidenhead and Sutton are lower) and 21 on target (worst in the division).

Dover should be really solid favourites here in my book. The only small negative is three home defeats in four this season, but I'm happy to attribute that to small sample variance and read just as much into gutsy wins at Chesterfield, Barnet, Sutton and Harrogate already this season.

5pts Dover to beat Ebbsfleet at 17/20 (General)

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