Championship - Hot or Not

We're six games in now, so it seems a reasonable time to ask the question about whether your side is Hot or Not.

Contenders (The Hot)

Leeds are right up there this season. Who knows, it really could be their season this time, rather the fans just thinking it is. Bielsa will need to manage the squad to avoid burning them out, but with a 70% shot ratio they are very much looking like title prospects. 3rd in the table is no more than they deserve.

Fulham are 6th in the table, but are performing well on the expected goals front. They have been hugely efficient in terms of Shots on Target (74% ratio) over the opening exchanges, and our model currently ranks them just behind Leeds.

Brentford managed to lose 1-0 to Birmingham on the opening day and remain down in 14th place in the table. The underlaying data looks as strong as ever (they do have form for looking good without delivering) and they should be in for a good season in our eyes. Scoring just five goals from 88 shots is certainly well below expectations and they may be a good bet to finish in the top six at 12/5.

West Brom have managed 100 shots already, and are also doing pretty well at the other end. They are definitely in with a shout this season and look well poised in the table already.

Interesting..... (The Warm)

Charlton are ticking along really nicely under Lee Bowyer, and whilst their 2nd place in the table thus far is definitely a little bit "overs", a combination of their clear improvements, strong form at the value, and points already in the bag make them a great shout for the Top 6 at a toppy 7/1 with a few firms.

Concern Brewing (The Not)

Huddersfield have already changed manager and have just a single point on the board. No side has amassed fewer "expected" goals than Huddersfield and their 15 shots on target in six matches is a serious concern. Any injuries to Karlan Grant could be catastrophic and they could be the next big side to have a go in League One. You can still get 3/1 which looks fair enough.

Wigan are 22nd and have scored just four goals so far. They looks a similar prospect to Huddersfield and need to find some fire-power from somewhere. Their return is a little below where we might expect but they should be concerned.

Bristol City are probably our big outsiders as contenders for the drop. They have 11 points on the board already but our data suggests they have been hugely lucky and a drop down the table would be no surprise. At 25/1 for the drop they are probably doing well enough to keep them clear, but 8/5 about a bottom half finish looks appealing. They have allowed more shots against than any side in the division, and have managed just 39% of shots in their games so far.

Recommended Antepost Additions

1pt Brentford to finish in the Top 6 at 12/5

1pt Charlton to finish in the Top 6 at 7/1

1pt Huddersfield to be relegated at 3/1

1pt Bristol City to finish in the bottom half at 8/5

#Football