League One - Hot or Not

Contenders (The Hot)

Ipswich Town are definitely in the hot column, with Expected Goals, League Position and Shot Ratio numbers all coming out on top. Of course they have benefited from the Bolton factor, having run out deserved 5-0 winners in that one, but they’ve also put in decent performances elsewhere and thoroughly deserve their spot at the top. As a Town fan myself, I’ve spent the last three or four years putting them up for relegation as the unrelenting decline took hold, but finally the confidence is coming through and they have a stretch of winnable fixtures in front of them – Doncaster (H), MK Dons (A) and Gillingham (A). At 5/1 they are probably a bet for the title after a shaky start from Portsmouth (results wise) and Sunderland (performance wise).

Wycombe spent last season struggling along, but opening the season against Bolton seems to have set them up nicely, and they are putting in some great performances which now sees them 5th. They have been genuinely good and I can see them enjoying a great season judging from the early performances. Even adjusting for their efforts against Bolton, they appear one of the most attack minded sides in the division. A title tilt looks beyond them, but they are worth a glance in the other markets which could see them overachieve. One downside is they have already played Bolton, Southend, MK Dons and AFC Wimbledon. That’s a hell of a nice start……

Luton Town showed its more than possible to achieve back-to-back promotions last season and Lincoln will hope to emulate that. They have points on the board and have been posting solid xG numbers as well to support the outcomes. They are probably too short in the markets to warrant a bet though.

Concerned (The Not)

At the other end, Bury are gone, and Bolton are rebuilding with a negative 11 points to overhaul, which leaves potentially just two relegation spots for everyone else to avoid. Rivals AFC Wimbledon and MK Dons both look to be really struggling this season, and could lead the way at the wrong end of the table.

AFC Wimbledon have managed just 52 shots in their opening six matches – only Bolton and Sunderland posting fewer, while they have also faced 84 at the other end. Those are seriously concerning numbers, and whilst much has been written about Southend’s plight I can’t help by feel AFC Wimbledon are in a worse state on the pitch right now. 38% shot ratio and 31% SOT ratio are always concerning numbers at this stage of the season.

Those metrics are almost exactly the same for MK Dons, who have at least managed to get six points on the board. They are currently showing 39% shot ratio and 35% SOT ratio and may not be helped by their progression in the EFL Cup, as the fixtures look set to come thick and fast. At 9/1 they certainly look an interesting prospect for relegation.

The market is already condemning Southend, but despite six straight defeats (and eight from nine if you include the cup), there is some light at the end of the tunnel. The shot and xG numbers suggest they have actually performed at a slightly higher level than a few of those around them. A win or two over Fleetwood, MK Dons or Accrington over the next few days could improve the outlook considerably, and I’m not interested in odds-on prices given there are likely to be only a couple of slots to fill now.

Recommended Bets

1pt e/w Ipswich to win League One at 5/1

1pt MK Dons to be relegated at 9/1

#Football