National League - Saturday

The midweek five point bet on Dover beating Ebbsfleet didn’t come off unfortunately, which was a significant blow, but dwelling for just a moment, Andy Hessenthaler’s side managed 11 shots on target to Ebbsleet’s four in that match and we should probably put it in the “right bet, wrong outcome” column.

This week Dover travel to Boreham Wood, a side who themselves put in a decent stint at Eastleigh – deserving more from the game in that one – they landed nine on target to just two from the hosts, but lost 2-0!

Over the course of the opening nine matches, Dover have a 108-72 shot record (60% ratio), and 56-39 (59%) on-target, compared to 92-98 (48%) for Boreham Wood, and 44-39 (53%) on target. With a 60% shot ratio at this point, Dover are definitely in the range of title contenders at this point, so prices of 29/20 are long enough to warrant a small interest in Hessenthaler’s side in this one.

As a fairly regular visitor to Wetherby Road, I'm fortunate enough to get a good look at Harrogate Town, but they don't look as defensively robust in 2019/20 as they were last season. Only Wrexham have allowed more shots on their goal this season (124 vs 120), and there is much to sort out at Harrogate if they are to launch a similar assault on the play-offs as last year.

Recently promoted Torquay are a point better off that Town, but are performing well and will no doubt make it different for the visitors this weekend. They won 15 of their 21 home games last season and they surely represent value for money at 5/4 in this one.

Finally, Hartlepool face Woking in the evening TV match for BT Sport, and despite collecting 22 points from their opening nine matches, I remain somewhat unconvinced about their pedigree to last the distance.

In the National League, a side will typically score one goal for every 7.6 shots, and one goal for every 3.12 shots on target. So far this season Woking have recorded a 17-7 goals F/A record, but have scored those 17 goals with just 79 shots and 40 on target. A more normal conversion record might well see them somewhere nearer to 11 in the "for" column. At the other end, they have allowed 98 shots, and 32 on target. A more realistic "against" column may well have read 11 in another dimension. In short, they are overachieving, and Hartlepool can strike this weekend as a result.

Recommended Bets

1pt Dover to beat Boreham Wood at 29/20 (Betfred)

1pt Torquay to beat Harrogate Town at 5/4 (General)

1pt Hartlepool to beat Woking at 23/20 (General)

#Football