League One - Weekend Picks

Ipswich Town play host to Doncaster Rovers this weekend hoping to bank a fifth consecutive victory and protect their unbeaten league record thus far, and we reckon they are fair value to deliver on that target.

Only Portsmouth have allowed fewer shots on their goal than Ipswich, which has meant just four goals conceded in six matches, and they also boast the best shot ratio in the division – 69%. That was massaged somewhat courtesy of a trip to Bolton, but they are still topping 60% without that match, so it’s genuine form. They have created 94 efforts at goal (against a league average of 73) and just 42 against, so they are in good shape at both ends of the pitch. Having already played both Sunderland and Peterborough it’s fair to say Ipswich have faced a balanced mix of opponents this season.

We like Doncaster as a set up, and tipped them last week, but they are yet to keep a clean sheet this season and Ipswich should probably be odds-on in this one in all honesty. Doncaster’s shot numbers so far have read 73-56 in their opening five matches, and 24-18 on-target. No mugs for sure, but I’d be pitching Ipswich as title contenders at this stage, and Doncaster as a side who will hope to mount some sort of play-off push if they can steer clear of injuries, but likely no better.

Another side who have both started strongly, and also played Bolton, are Coventry. They have banked a heathy 59.7% shot ratio (89-60) and 67% on-target ratio (39-19). Adjusting for the Bolton match see’s them drop to 54% and 65% respectively, but those are still exceptional numbers for a side who have been troubled off the pitch and are playing their home matches at St Andrews this season.

After 10 games, Coventry have now won five and drawn four – winning one of those on Penalties, so the confidence in the camp should be pretty good indeed. Flying high in 2nd, a good season bodes ahead for the Sky Blues.

They travel to Burton this weekend who are being marked up as 13/10 favourites. That suggests the pair would be hard to split on a neutral venue, but I’m not convinced that’s doing Coventry the justice they deserve. Burton have scored just eight times so far this season, and are 81-86 on the shot count (48.5%). They look vulnerable.

Black Type have shown at 5/2 on Coventry, but we are content tipping up at 9/4 as that price won’t last and I’m not sure you’ll all get on at that price!

Finally Accrington are being underrated when they entertain Sunderland. My ratings often drag me towards opposing Sunderland, and so it’s not entirely unexpected that I want to be against them when they are close to even money away from home. They have created just 51 shots in six matches, conceding 55, and just 18 on target. To put that into perspective, only Southend, Shrewsbury and Bolton have managed fewer.

Sunderland are title favourites, but I’m convinced they are about the worst antepost bet of the season right now. I’d be surprised to see them competing for promotion, let alone winning the title, and more realistically they might be marginal play-off contenders.

Accrington are near the bottom, but their shot numbers have been more than acceptable, and they should be somewhere towards mid-table when it all plays out this season. They have a 86-75 shot record and 29-32 on-target.

Recommended Bets

2pts Ipswich to beat Doncaster at 21/20 (Bet365)

1pt Coventry to beat Burton at 9/4 (General)

1pt Accrington to beat Sunderland (Bet365)

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