Real Salt Lake v San Jose

San Jose Earthquakes travel to Real Salt Lake this evening for another MLS match affected a little by international call-ups. The balance isn’t quite as significant as Colorado a couple of days ago, which should be reflected in our staking plan, but there is an opportunity nonetheless.

Let’s start with the hosts – Real Salt Lake – who currently occupy 6th place in the Western Conference. Admittedly they have built that record on a super strong home form – something not unusual in the MLS – recording a 10-1-3 record at their own place.

The problem here comes with the players they are missing. Albert Rusnak drives the midfield most weeks, weighing in with nine goals this season and also starting 24 of their 28 matches this season. Alongside he would usually have Jefferson Savarino and Corey Baird. All three miss out this week with international call-ups. Justin Glad and Brooks Lennon are another couple of first team regulars out (both defenders), while Sebastian Saucedo would probably have come into midfield were he not away as well. It’s a significant problem, and in total robs them of 119 first team appearances this season (189 are available for selection) and more than half their goals this season.

San Jose have a few out as well of course, with five call-ups, but Gilbert Fuentes hasn’t played a single game this season, so that brings the impact down to four. Of those Jackson Yueill looks the biggest loss – the midfielder being an almost ever present this season, while Vako is also missed for both his presence in the centre and his contribution in terms of goals as well. On balance though, they are the only two major absentees here and the pure numbers show that 71 first team “starts” are out, and 237 are available, including the majority of their goalscorers.

Overall for the season, the pair are level on +6 goal difference, but the expected goals numbers support the notion that San Jose could well be better off, and Salt Lake in a worse position. Real Salt Lake have posted xG numbers of 29.7 (F) and 31.6 (A) – meaning they have overachieved by almost eight goals – a significant factor in anyone’s money. San Jose by contrast come in at 47.4 (F) and 39.0 (A), so they are underachieving by 2.4 goals.

With a clear quality different, I’m prepared to abandon a usual rue of thumbs in avoiding away sides in MLS and suggest San Jose are value for money at 2.76 on the exchanges.

#Football