League Two - Weekend Picks

Colchester United have struggling for goals so far this season – netting just six times in seven matches, which has been their undoing given how defensively sound they have been (also just six goals against). They have however managed 86 shots this season, which might normally have manifested itself in an extra goal and at least a positive goal difference. They also benefit from real stability, with John McGreal well settled in at the helm. They are probably in a broadly fair position in mid-table but do have some key areas to work on nonetheless.

They make the trip to Forest Green this weekend who look a complete mess compared to last season. They’ve somehow conceded just five goals (scoring just six), but the wide variety of expected goals models we use suggest that’s very much more luck than judgement and they are probably one of the weakest performing teams in the section on the evidence thus far. 13 points is a tremendous haul of points for the performances so far and as a result we’re keen to get against them. Our expected goals model puts them on something like 6.5 goals for and 12 goals against. Those levels of over-achievement are unsustainable unless something changes quickly. They have banked the fewest shots per game of any side in the division, while only Salford, Northampton and Macclesfield have allowed more at the other end.

Crawley drew 1-1 with Macclesfield last weekend, in a match they probably did enough to win. The outcome leaves them in 11th place after seven matches. They have been one of the most impressive sides in the division offensively so far, and that style of play should certainly reduce the chance of draws busting bets on them this season with a real do or die attitude in operation. Their 18.4 shots per game is off the scale (rank 1), on target efforts at 5.4 is also ranked 2nd in the league.

They play host to pre-season favourites Mansfield, and despite having a decent budget to play with, the Stags have so far failed to light up the division – winning just twice in their first seven outings. On the opening evidence there doesn’t look to be an enormous gulf between the pair, so odds of 17/10 about Crawley with home advantage are probably a little toppy all things considered. Mansfield always seem to be over-bet in the wider market.

Finally, Grimsby make the trip over to Oldham on Saturday hoping to strike another blow agains the struggling League Two outfit. It’s not been a pretty time to be an Oldham fan, and so far this season they have collected just five points from seven matches.

The Mariners have been ruthlessly efficient this season – netting a goal for every 6.46 shots, which is certainly unsustainable, but there are good reasons behind those stats. Despite landing fewer shots than many of their divisional rivals, the quality of the efforts has been higher – with 63 of their 85 shots coming from inside the penalty area – a whopping 74%. Putting that into perspective, the wider divisional average is 58%. They have also been defensively solid and that will give them chances in every game they play. There are plenty of positive noises coming out of the club as well right now.

Oldham just don’t seen to have the required fire power this season, and have managed just 11 shots per game (ranks 21st) and 2.6 per game on target (ranks 23rd).

Recommended Bets

1pt Colchester to beat Forest Green at 13/8 (Betfred)

2pts Crawley to beat Mansfield at 13/8 (Betfred, Coral, Betfair

2pts Grimsby to beat Oldham at 7/4 (General)

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