Scottish League One - Saturday

Falkirk host Forfar on Saturday hoping to improve their early league position of fourth. They have a very handy looking F/A column with eight goals scored and just two against, but the majority of that came from a 6-0 thumping of Dumbarton, so they need to start getting more consistent if a promotion run is to happen. Overall they have a 65% shot ratio (61-32) and 66% on target ratio (29-15) so are clearly in good shape.

Forfar have been less effective – mustering just a 42% shot ratio (43-60), which falls to 41% when looking only at on-target efforts (19-27) so they are surely big underdogs in this one and may struggle to keep it close. Falkirk also have a terrific record against Forfar in recent years. All four meetings in this millennia have seen Falkirk win – with scores of 2-1, 4-1, 4-0 and 2-0 achieved.

East Fife travel to Montrose, who are one of the weakest sides in the section and will surely be playing in League Two next season. Fife have started the campaign really brightly, which means this is a top v bottom clash, and the data suggests the gap will increase from 10 points to 13 points between the pair following this one.

East Fife have a 60% shot ratio (62-42) and 69% on-target ratio (31-14) so they are clearly well organised at the back, as well as effective up-top. That’s translated to a 12-6 F/A record, but they are probably better defensively than that suggests.

Montrose are bottom of the pie on pretty much whatever metric you want to look at. They have scored just four times, and conceded ten this season, with a shot ratio of just 39% (36-55) and on target ratio of 43% (16-21). Our model is returning East Fife as a good odds-on shout here, so grab the 23/20 with Marathon, or 11/10 in a host of other places before it goes this morning.

Recommended Bets

2.2pts Falkirk to beat Forfar at 8/11 (Betfair)

1pt Falkirk (-1) to beat Forfar at 9/4 (PaddyPower)

2pts East Fife to beat Montrose at 23/20 (Marathon)

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